A few days ago, the reporter learned from the “Fifth China Photovoltaic + Innovation Development Forum” that during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s renewable energy development has made significant achievements, including application scale, technological progress, cost reduction, consumption and utilization, and policy Remarkable results have been achieved in terms of system and international influence. The scale of development and utilization continues to increase. In 2019, the generation of renewable energy is 1.7 times that of 2015; the level of technical equipment has improved significantly, and hydropower, wind power, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries have global competitive advantages; the economics of development and utilization have increased rapidly, and the initial realization of land Wind power and photovoltaic power generation will go online at a flat price; the consumption and utilization problem has been effectively alleviated, and the target of 95% utilization rate has been initially achieved; the policy support system has become increasingly perfect to guide the orderly and healthy development of renewable energy.
In an interview with our reporter, Yi Yuechun, deputy dean of the General Institute of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Planning and Design, said that at present, countries have successively formulated renewable energy-led energy reform strategies, taking renewable energy as the main direction of energy transition, and renewable energy will With sustained and rapid development, photovoltaic and wind power will become the main force in the energy transition. In the future, the development trend of renewable energy diversification, high efficiency, low cost, and integration is obvious. The efficiency of photovoltaic power generation will continue to improve. At the same time, the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is expected to be significantly lower than the cost of conventional power sources.
Regarding the development trend of the power system, Yi Yuechun believes that in the future, a flexible power system centered on renewable energy will be built to gradually increase the flexibility of the system and ensure the consumption of renewable energy. Improve the power transaction scheduling mechanism, study the environmental benefits and system costs of renewable energy, gradually promote the entry of renewable energy into the power market, and achieve efficient consumption of renewable energy through marketization.
Yi Yuechun pointed out that in the past ten years, global renewable energy power generation accounted for 52% of the increase in power consumption. In the first few years of the "13th Five-Year Plan", China accounted for only 38% (of which hydropower accounted for 12%, the new Energy accounts for 26%), and the progress of the green transformation of the power system lags behind the global average. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country should make overall plans for land and consumption, and promote renewable energy power generation to become the main body of increased power consumption.
Yi Yuechun said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation will achieve full price parity, and some regions will achieve low prices. In 2025, onshore wind power investment is expected to drop to 5.2-7 yuan/watt, and on-grid electricity price is expected to drop to 0.23 to 0.4 yuan/kWh; photovoltaic power generation investment is expected to drop to 3 to 3.8 yuan/watt, and on-grid electricity price is expected to drop to 0.20～0.38 Yuan/kWh. He also pointed out that in the future, the efficiency of photovoltaic modules will be further improved. Large-size silicon wafers and thinning of solar cells will become a development trend. The efficiency of cells will also be further improved. The application of bifacial modules will greatly increase power generation.
In an interview with reporters, Xi Guofu, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the Industrial Development Department of the State Grid Corporation of China, pointed out that full consumption is the key guarantee for the high-quality development of the new energy industry.
Xi Guofu said that promoting the development of new energy industries is an important measure to promote my country's energy structure adjustment and consumption clean and low-carbon transition, and full consumption is the key guarantee for the high-quality development of the new energy industry. At present, the overall development of renewable energy is showing a good trend. As of the end of 2018, my country's installed renewable energy power generation capacity reached 728 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The level of renewable energy utilization has been continuously improved, and the national average water energy utilization rate has reached about 95%. However, with the expansion of installed capacity, problems such as incomplete market mechanisms for new energy consumption, uncoordinated development of network sources, insufficient peak shaving capabilities, and incomplete support systems for new energy consumption need to be resolved urgently.
Xi Guofu believes that there are currently few overall mechanisms for new energy consumption, and supply and demand are still based on balance within the province and local consumption. There has not yet been a joint force for the whole society to promote new energy consumption, and there is a lack of promotion of new energy across regions. Strong policy support for provincial consumption. The total installed capacity of renewable energy in the "Three Norths" area exceeds 170 million kilowatts, which cannot be absorbed locally; the western and "Three Norths" areas have a high proportion of new energy installed capacity, severely inadequate peak shaving capacity, and insufficient power transmission channel capacity. In addition, key technologies and equipment support such as large-scale new energy grid connection and grid security and stability control are insufficient, and the relevant technical standards for new energy grid connection are not perfect.
In order to further increase the consumption of new energy and promote the clean and low-carbon transition of energy production and consumption, Xi Guofu suggested to do the following three aspects.
One is to establish a new energy consumption market mechanism for the national power market, support the development of spot market transactions in areas rich in new energy, and improve the construction of auxiliary power markets such as standby and frequency modulation. At the same time, we will strengthen national cross-provincial and cross-regional deployment and market transactions, link the problem of "three abandonments" in sending regions and reduce coal consumption in receiving regions, and further expand the scale of new energy cross-provincial and cross-regional mid- and long-term transactions and power generation rights transactions. .
The second is to strengthen the construction of the flexible control capacity of the power system. Strengthen the construction of pumped-storage power stations and gas-fired power stations, actively promote the deep peak-shaving transformation of thermal power plants, and comprehensively improve the power system regulation capability. Improve the demand-side response mechanism, actively guide the orderly charging and discharging of new energy vehicles, and customer-side energy storage devices to participate in grid regulation, and actively respond to changes in new energy output. Improve the connection and coordination between new energy construction and power grid development planning, improve grid-source coordination capabilities, and improve the level of power grid intelligence through the construction of ubiquitous power Internet of Things.
The third is to accelerate the research and development of key technologies and equipment to support the friendly grid connection of new energy. Strengthen top-level design and strategic layout, speed up new energy grid connection, grid security and stability control, energy storage, virtual synchronous machine, energy substitution and conversion, multi-energy complementary coordination and other key technology research and equipment research and development, and integrate new energy scientific research and technology Development is incorporated into the national development plan. Arrange special funds for key technology and major equipment research and development support to support enterprises to improve their innovation capabilities. Promote the improvement of national new energy grid-connected and other related technical standards, improve the intelligent level of friendly grid-connected grids at all levels, and provide high-proportion operation and large-scale delivery of new energy
Wei Suo, chairman of the Hydrogen Energy Industry Branch of the China Industry Development Promotion Association, pointed out in an interview with this reporter that as the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the development of the hydrogen energy industry has gradually entered the fast lane, and the competitiveness of photovoltaic hydrogen production will gradually increase. , To contribute to my country's construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and the future of solar photovoltaic hydrogen production is promising.
"In recent years, as a green and clean energy encouraged by the country, photovoltaic power generation has continued to develop at a high speed, and the installed capacity has continued to expand." Wei Suo said that as of the end of June this year, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 216 million kilowatts, of which the state power investment The Group Co., Ltd. is committed to building a "world-class photovoltaic industry" with the largest installed capacity, outstanding core technology, and overall industry leadership. The installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 22.19 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world. At the same time, my country's photovoltaic technology continues to improve, costs are accelerating, and development models are gradually diversified. A variety of "photovoltaic +" new business formats are rapidly emerging, and the photovoltaic industry has ushered in the dawn of an era of parity.
However, Wei Suo also pointed out that due to the inherent randomness, volatility, and phase of photovoltaic power generation, it has increased the difficulty of power grid dispatching and caused challenges to the stability of the power system. In particular, the problem of absorption has become prominent. One of the main bottlenecks restricting the continuous large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation. He believes that hydrogen, as a secondary energy and energy carrier, provides a way to break the game. The production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics will effectively solve the development bottleneck of renewable energy such as the consumption problem. According to Wei Suo, at present, both photovoltaic power generation technology and hydrogen production technology are relatively mature. As the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the development of the hydrogen energy industry has gradually entered the fast lane, and the competitiveness of photovoltaic hydrogen production will gradually increase. Hydrogen production will be promising in the future.
According to Wei Suo, hydrogen energy is clean and environmentally friendly and can be widely used in transportation power, distributed power generation and heating, chemical industry, smelting and other fields. It is called "the ultimate energy of the 21st century." As an important strategic direction to solve the energy and environmental crisis and structural adjustment, hydrogen energy has always received widespread attention from all countries in the world. Major developed countries in the world, such as the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Russia, have elevated the development of hydrogen energy as a national strategy. The European Commission formally announced the "EU Hydrogen Energy Strategy" in July this year. According to the recently released "BP World Energy Outlook", in the process of substantial decarbonization of the energy system, the role of hydrogen energy will become increasingly prominent. By 2050, the proportion of hydrogen energy in total final energy consumption may increase by 16%.
"In my country, the development of the hydrogen energy industry is a major event related to national energy security. my country has sufficient renewable energy resources and a large amount of by-product hydrogen resources. The relevant market is huge, and the hydrogen energy industry has broad development space." It seems that the development of the hydrogen energy industry is of great practical significance for my country to reduce its dependence on foreign oil and gas, improve energy security, reduce air pollution emissions, improve the ecological environment, and build a beautiful home. The development of the hydrogen energy industry will drive energy technology innovation, energy structure adjustment, energy system transformation, and efficient development and utilization of renewable resources, and contribute to the high-quality development of my country's energy system, clean transformation of high-energy-consuming industries, high-end equipment manufacturing, and the innovative development of industries such as automobiles , Are of great strategic significance
Source: Chemical Network
