It is understood that the major caustic soda enterprises will usher in a wave of centralized inspections in the near future, and the concentration of caustic soda supply is positive again. After the ex-factory price of 99% caustic soda in Inner Mongolia has been raised to the price of 2,200 yuan/ton in the early stage, can it be done again? Up?
In the early stage, boosted by the continuous increase in the price of liquid caustic soda, the centralized maintenance of caustic soda enterprises and the good condition of downstream alumina orders, the mainstream ex-factory price of 99% caustic soda in Wuhai area of Northwest Inner Mongolia reached a high level of 2,150-2200 yuan/ton during the year.
With the completion of the preliminary overhaul, the price of liquid caustic soda in the east has fallen sharply, and the price of caustic soda has entered the consolidation period. The market wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. Some market participants reflect that the shipment situation is not tepid, showing a certain pessimism about the market outlook. Mentality, then after the finishing period, where does the price of flake soda go?
First of all, from the perspective of the supply side, some chlor-alkali companies will usher in a new round of centralized maintenance in the near future. It is understood that major caustic soda companies including Xinjiang Tianye will arrange parking for maintenance starting this week.
In addition, there is not too much pressure on the inventory of traders, and some traders said that individual caustic soda companies are relatively tight in the delivery of caustic soda. Therefore, whether from the perspective of the factory or the market, the supply side will undoubtedly follow the company’s overhaul. It will bring certain favorable support to the caustic soda market.
From the demand side, the downstream alumina industry will continue to support and boost the price of caustic soda regardless of the starting load and the price level. It is understood that the alumina market price has risen to 2650-2700 yuan/ton. At a high level during the year, the industry's average operating load rate also continued to be stable, bringing rigid demand support to the caustic soda market. The average operating load rate of the downstream viscose fiber industry has recently seen a slight upward trend, while other downstream terminal industries, pulp and chemical, water treatment and other industries have performed relatively smoothly.
Overall, in the next 15-20 days of flake caustic soda maintenance period, due to the positive stimulation of maintenance and pre-sale orders, domestic caustic caustic soda prices will continue to run at a high level with a high probability, and the price of caustic soda companies will be ex-factory. There is still the possibility of upward adjustment. On the market side, as the cost of getting goods continues to increase, market prices may also rise moderately. However, considering the downstream receiving capacity, especially the non-alumina industry's recent enthusiasm for receiving goods, it is expected to be more difficult to increase significantly. The further increase is expected to be 50-100 yuan/ton, and high prices need to be focused. Consider the receiving time point and after the end of the overhaul season, consider the changes in the downstream receiving situation for high-priced caustic soda.
Source: Huameng.com
