It is reported that reducing fossil fuel use is not enough to slow climate change. The process of global emission reduction has been delayed for a long time, and measures need to be taken to separate (remove) carbon dioxide from the air.
Industries that remove carbon dioxide from the air will soon generate as much revenue as today's oil and gas industries, according to a new study. In the short term, that means more money will go to environmental self-cleaning ways to reduce carbon emissions, such as planting trees and protecting peat bogs and mangroves. Eventually, technologies such as capturing carbon dioxide directly from the air or enhancing rock weathering will be on the rise, but these technologies are not mature, and there is not enough money to apply them on a large scale.
The study, published by vivid economics, found that annual revenue from negative emissions or carbon offsets could reach $1.4 trillion by 2050, up from about $300 million today. In contrast, the oil and gas industry is expected to generate $1.5 trillion in revenue this year, down about 40% from 2019, according to rystad energy consulting.
Jason EIS, executive director of vivid economics, said the government's payment for carbon removal projects was not much different from what they had paid for other environmental protection over the years. People pay for their own living environment. They send clean water to their homes by paying public utilities, and the waste water produced by families is paid for by taxes. Therefore, buying behavior also helps to remove harmful greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
Vivid economics estimates revenue expectations far higher than other experts. Julio Friedmann, a senior researcher at Columbia University, believes that by 2050, the carbon removal industry's revenue could be close to $500 billion. Noah deich, executive director of carbon 180, a non-profit group dedicated to reducing carbon emissions, said it was "highly speculative" to predict the value of a market 30 years later, especially at a time when the market has not yet developed.
A large part of today's carbon offsetting market depends on the voluntary purchase of credit lines by economic entities to achieve their own goals. Although the market for voluntary purchase is expected to grow, the mature and highly market-oriented carbon removal market will expand rapidly under the supervision of government regulators.
However, both the market relying on voluntary purchase and the mature formal market need reliable suppliers. Government regulations can help establish standards to monitor and verify whether natural solutions and technology options can store carbon dioxide as promised. It will also help customers compare different carbon removal products, from rainforest conservation to marine algae farms, to find products that really meet their needs.
While many experts are equivocal about the ultimate tax, they agree that a strong market for carbon offsets is needed, especially when most of the world's largest economies are committed to net zero emissions. Bill winters, chief executive of Standard Chartered PLC, warned in September that without the right safeguards, the carbon offsetting industry could be vulnerable to similar interest rate manipulation. Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England, said earlier this month that, while the market for carbon offsetting would be complex, it would also be an important part of meeting climate targets. If countries around the world take climate action seriously, the revenue is expected to reach at least tens of billions of dollars.
Even if fossil fuel sales fall, big oil companies don't need to be bystanders. Some of the technology options for extracting carbon dioxide from the air require the precise expertise and infrastructure of traditional energy companies. Instead of pumping carbon out of the ground, these companies need to pump carbon back deep into the ground - often where oil and gas are found.
Source: Chemical Network
