Global crude oil production is oversupplied, and global crude oil storage space is stretched. In addition to witnessing the era of negative oil prices, will China, as a major importer of crude oil, buy oil cheaper, will it buy in bulk?
It is understood that the reference price for Chinese companies to purchase crude oil in the world is basically the price of Brent oil. This price fluctuation will directly affect the cost of crude oil imports by Chinese companies.
Meiyou is already on the way!
According to the global satellite tanker big data system tracking, as of April 23, the data of 15 oil tankers sailing from the United States to China after a historic plunge in oil prices have been tracked. If the scheduled flight and flight schedule are not temporarily changed, China is expected to be in May By the beginning of June, US crude oil with a total volume of more than 6.6 million barrels will be imported, which means that Sino-US crude oil trade is restarting after an interval of 4 months.
It is reported that, except for Rong Lin Wan, which reached 750,000 barrels of crude oil, the 15 tankers are very small in other orders.
The restart of Sino-US crude oil trade is expected to change China's crude oil import structure:
According to estimates, if the "Sino-U.S. First Phase Economic and Trade Agreement" signed on January 15, 2020 is fully implemented, with the reference to the proportion of imports in 2017, it may increase crude oil imports by US $ 6.96 billion in the increase in the import value of energy products of US $ 18.5 billion. Products, it is expected that China will import US $ 10.15 billion worth of US crude oil in 2020 (based on 2017 imports, based on US $ 30 / barrel as the basis for calculation of about 338 million barrels) or 287 million barrels of US crude oil (in 2017 The import volume is the calculation base, and the import value is calculated at 30 US dollars per barrel). At the same time, China's crude oil import structure may change, and the United States is expected to surpass Russia as China's third-largest crude oil importer.
Crude oil surplus is serious, it is difficult to improve in the short term
Anxious to grab a single order?
The price of oil tankers is very high, and the distance from the United States is long. The CIF price must be more expensive than the crude oil from the Middle East, and the operability is not strong.
In the long run, if we want to reverse the oversupply of crude oil, we can only hope for the reduction of production in major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia and the improvement of the new coronavirus epidemic. However, at present, there is still no turning point in the European and American epidemic. The reduction of crude oil production has to wait until May, and the intensity of production reduction is not as much as expected.
Taken together, short-term reductions in oil-producing countries will alleviate the oversupply of crude oil, but the problem of excess crude oil capacity still exists before the new coronavirus epidemic has not recovered. But now compared with March, the remaining crude oil storage space has been greatly reduced, so in the short term, crude oil prices will fall easily.
Crude oil is still valuable, cautious long-term layout is more secure
It is not that no one wants crude oil. The May contract fell to a negative value and it felt that crude oil was worthless. After the problem of tight storage capacity was resolved, the price of crude oil would slowly be revised. However, due to the current complex market situation, crude oil investment is difficult to operate in the short term. Only long-term and long-term orders are more stable.
