According to customs statistics, in May, my country's total import and export volume was 2.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, exports were 1.46 trillion yuan, up 1.4%; imports were 1.01 trillion yuan, down 12.7%.
Mainly present the following characteristics:
First, exports to emerging markets are better than the overall. Exports to emerging markets fell by 2.9%, which was better than the overall 1.9 percentage points, and the proportion increased by 0.9 percentage points to 49.7%. Imports and exports to ASEAN increased, while imports and exports to the European Union, the United States and Japan declined.
Second, the proportion of private enterprises' exports has increased. The export of private enterprises decreased slightly by 0.3%, which was better than the overall 4.4 percentage points, showing strong resilience and vitality, and the proportion increased by 2.4 percentage points to 52.9%. The exports of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 8.4% and 9.4% respectively.
Third, the export of electromechanical products is better than the whole. The export of mechanical and electrical products fell by 4.0%, which was less than the overall 0.7 percentage points, accounting for 61.1%. Among them, the export of integrated circuits and computers increased by 14.5% and 1.8%. Labor-intensive products are greatly affected by overseas epidemics, and the total export of clothing, bags, shoes, toys, furniture and other products fell by 20.3%. Epidemic prevention materials have become the highlight of export growth. Masks drove the growth of textiles by 25.5%, and the growth of medical devices and Chinese medicinal materials by 33% and 8%.
Fourth, the import volume of major commodities increased and prices fell. The import volume of iron ore, crude oil, natural gas, soybeans and other commodities increased, and the average import price of bulk commodities fell mainly. Import prices of crude oil, natural gas, copper, coal, and soybeans fell by 21.2%, 14.7%, 6.3%, 4.7%, and 1.7%, respectively, and imports increased by 5.2%, 1.9%, 12.4%, 16.8%, and 6.8%, respectively. The fall in the prices of these commodities alone slowed import growth by 3 percentage points.
Export enterprises report surge in April-May
April and May are usually periods when export losses are relatively low. Because, as usual, there is neither a season change period nor a major holiday. Generally, market sales during this period are relatively stable.
However, only in April and May, Zhejiang Xinbao’s short-term export credit insurance received a total of more than 1200 cases of Zhejiang enterprises related to damage reports (data does not include Ningbo, the same below), an increase of about 155%. At the same time, the amount of reported losses has surged in the past two months, an increase of about 180% year-on-year, and the insurance rate is at a historical high, significantly higher than the same period last year. According to the latest underwriting data of Xiamen Credit Insurance, the number of short-term export credit insurance damage cases in May increased by 196% year-on-year, and the amount of cases increased by 255% year-on-year.
From the perspective of damage reports, the amount of damage reported by most countries has a positive correlation with the spread of the epidemic. The number of damage cases and the amount of damage reported have risen sharply in the past two months.
The risk of foreign exchange collection has increased significantly, and the abnormally high losses have reflected the current sluggish foreign market and the still severe new crown epidemic prevention and control situation. Compared with the previous stage, there have been some new developments in export credit risk.
The number of losses reported in Asia ranks first in the world
From the perspective of continents, from April to May, the number of reported damage cases and the amount of damage in the Asian region ranked first in the world, with a year-on-year increase of about 250% and 258% respectively, and the overall risk rate ranked second in the continent. Second only to Latin America. Among them, India, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Pakistan, UAE, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Myanmar and other regions have the highest number of reported cases in the continent, and India, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, China, The number of cases and reported damages in Pakistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Myanmar and other regions increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
Among the Asian countries (regions) with more exports from Zhejiang Province, Singapore, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, etc. have significantly higher risk rates in the past two months than the global average, and the risks are more significant. In addition, India is also the country with the highest number of reported damage cases among exporting countries in our province from April to May. Both the number of cases and the amount of damage reported have increased by more than 200% compared with the same period last year.
From April to May, the number of reported damage cases and the amount of reported damage in Europe all ranked second in the continent, increasing by approximately 95% and 343% year-on-year respectively. Among them, Italy, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, France, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands accounted for the top ten in the number of reported cases, and the number of cases increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and Italy, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Turkey, Spain and other countries reported a year-on-year increase of more than 100%.
From April to May, the risk rate in Latin America ranked first among continents, and the number of reported cases and the amount of reported losses increased by approximately 202% and 132% year-on-year respectively. Among them, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and other countries ranked the top five in the number of reported damage cases, and the number of cases increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and other countries reported a year-on-year increase in the amount of damage More than 130%.
From April to May, the number of reported cases and the amount of reported losses in North America increased by 103% and 120% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the damage reports were mainly concentrated in the United States and Canada, the number of cases increased by approximately 92% and 147% year-on-year, respectively, and the amount of damage reported increased by 108% and 303% year-on-year.
According to Xiamen Credit Insurance underwriting data, the risk rate of the US business has exceeded the global average risk rate, reaching 1.1 times the average level. Affected by multiple factors, the subsequent risks of the US business are not optimistic.
From April to May, the number of reported damage cases in Africa increased by about 70% compared with the same period last year, and the amount of reported damage cases decreased year-on-year.
From April to May, the number of reported cases and the amount of reported losses in Oceania increased by approximately 214% and 373% year-on-year respectively. Losses are mainly concentrated in Australia, and the number of cases and the amount of losses increased by 143% and 317% year-on-year respectively.
Affected by the epidemic situation, the number of buyer rejection cases increased significantly, and the number of rejection cases from April to May increased by approximately 3.5 times year-on-year. The number of rejection cases in the world is mainly in India, Pakistan, Hong Kong, China, Russia, Morocco, the United States and other countries (regions).
At present, there are many uncertainties in the international economy and trade, and uncertainty is risk. Risk control should continue to be the subject of current international economic and trade activities.
Source: Mobei Public Account
