Overcapacity makes waves
Gao Bo gives a group of association statistics. At present, the annual production capacity of domestic accelerators is 640,000 tons. After deducting the approximately 170,000 tons of MBT used as intermediates, the externally available production capacity is 470,000 tons; the apparent consumption is about 338,000 tons, with a surplus rate of 39%. Recently, Shengao Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., Hami Qixiang Chemical Co., Ltd., Dezhou Bochang New Material Technology Co., Ltd., and Henan Yongfeng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. have announced new project plans. In addition, Tianjin Kemai disclosed earlier For the Cangzhou project, it is expected that the annual production capacity of accelerators will rise to 1.033 million tons after full production. After deducting the 350,000 tons of MBT used as intermediates, the externally available production capacity is about 683,000 tons. By then, the apparent consumption is expected to be 350,000 tons, and the surplus rate will reach 95%.
The rubber additives industry, which had been calm before, quickly made waves. There are two reasons for the turbulence: First, compared with the total production capacity of 640,000 tons of domestic accelerators in 2020, the scale of the new project is really not small. For example, the newly announced Lianyungang project of Sheng'ao Chemical includes an annual output of 100,000 tons of accelerator intermediate M, 40,000 tons of accelerator NS, 40,000 tons of accelerator CBS, and 12,000 tons of accelerator DM devices. The second phase of the Cangzhou project announced by Kemai Chemicals in 2019 will include an annual output of 60,000 tons of accelerator MBT, 30,000 tons of accelerator TBBS, 30,000 tons of accelerator CBS and 20,000 tons of accelerator DCBS. The second is the disclosure of multiple new project news. The expected increase in production capacity puts a question mark on the product profit margins in the market outlook.
The imbalance between supply and demand intensifies competition
The core factor that determines profit is supply and demand. Is the supply and demand of rubber additives, especially rubber accelerators, balanced?
It is understood that the main domestic manufacturers of accelerators are currently concentrated in "2+26" cities for air pollution control. Shandong Shangshun Chemical Co., Ltd., Kemai Chemical Co., Ltd., Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd., and Weilin New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s capacity release rate will basically be around 75%. In 2020, many enterprises in Hebi except Hebi Yuanhao The operating rate is only about 55%.
"Since 2000, the production and sales of domestic rubber additives have increased year by year. However, in recent years, due to environmental pressures, most production companies have operating rates of less than 80%, creating the illusion of'supply exceeds demand'. The global demand for accelerators is only about 500,000 tons. Domestic production capacity has exceeded global demand. If production capacity continues to expand, it will inevitably have a greater impact.” said Wang Shuhua, chairman of Comat Chemical Co., Ltd.
"If a large number of projects continue to flow in, the production capacity of rubber additives will be severely surplus. In order to seize the market, it is not impossible to reopen the price war. If this is the case, downstream international giants will be able to enjoy low-cost additives while shopping around. Many continue to push down purchase prices.” said Wang Zhiqiang, chairman of the China Rubber Additives Committee and general manager of Weilin New Material Technology Co., Ltd., “now the domestic rubber additives account for 75% to 80% of the global market. %, production companies also have a certain degree of international influence. If severe overcapacity triggers vicious competition in the market, Chinese rubber additives companies may have a hard-working voice in the international market for more than ten years. This will affect domestic companies. Both profitability and local economic development will have a greater impact."
Take multiple measures to strengthen the industry
“Capacity adjustment is a dynamic process. We don’t need new projects, but very good projects that are clean, green, efficient, and smart.” Gao Bo said, “The reason why Chinese rubber additives have the right to speak internationally is that In addition to output, technology leadership is a more important reason."
It is understood that in recent years, the rubber additives industry has made frequent technological breakthroughs, and the processes of major accelerators such as MBT, TBBS, and MBTS have made considerable progress. For example, the MBT continuous production process unit developed by Shandong Shangshun will be officially put into operation in 2021. Weilin New Material's MBT 10,000-ton-class industrial equipment based on micro-mixing and enhanced continuous flow production and the world's first 10,000-ton MBTS micro-reaction continuous synthesis device and technology have reached the international leading level. The accelerator TBBS jointly developed by Kemai Chemical and Changzhou University adopts microchannel continuous flow technology and is also recognized as an international advanced level.
