Among China's imported products, service industries, mineral resources, electronic products, machinery manufacturing products, chemical products, agricultural products and transportation vehicles account for a relatively large proportion.
The top imports of chemical products are cyclic hydrocarbons (10.05%), ethylene polymers (8.43%), pharmaceuticals (6.43%), acyclic alcohols (5.66%) and synthetic rubber (4.03%).
In the short term, the supply chain of these chemical products is more complicated and more stable, and the substitutability is not strong, so everyone is basically in a state of common advancement and retreat. The possibility of restructuring the supply chain in the short term is small, but import dependence in 2020 The degree of probability will still decrease, the specific analysis is as follows:
Economic downturn
Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, strict control measures have been implemented in the country from late January to mid-March. Strictly restrict the movement of people, and most enterprises are in a state of stagnation. Although the domestic epidemic situation was effectively controlled in mid-March, the epidemic situation broke out overseas one after another and quickly swept the world. Affected by this, the World Bank and the World Monetary Fund expect a global economic recession this year.
At present, the global economy has greater linkage. If the epidemic situation in foreign countries is not effectively controlled, it will also cause a second injury to the domestic economy.
International trade efficiency decline
In addition to affecting the demand, the epidemic will also affect shipping and handling in international trade. At present, all major economies in the world have introduced different levels of personnel control measures, and many countries have issued state closure orders that strictly prohibit foreigners from entering. Even in countries without such strict control measures, the epidemic will cause a lot of inconvenience to international trade. For example, the loading and unloading efficiency of some ports is significantly lower than the previous period, which adds additional storage and transportation costs. For cost and time considerations, companies may give priority to domestic trade to meet their own needs.
Domestic refining and chemical projects get put into production
Affected by the large-scale refining and chemical production, 2020 is a major year for the production capacity of domestic chemicals, especially petrochemicals. According to statistics, except for PVC and urea (the backward production capacity of the urea market has been eliminated, the actual production capacity growth rate is less than 9.48%), the growth rate of the remaining production capacity is in double digits. It is more than 30%. Facing the huge increase in production capacity, there are only four ways to achieve a balance between supply and demand: improvement in demand, decline in operating rates, reduction in imports, and increase in exports.
However, whether the device can be successfully put into production needs to pay attention to the production profit and the profit comparison between the coal and oil processes, and many devices are planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to release all the production capacity within the year, so the impact of increased production capacity on imports is not as obvious as the data reflects .
The plastic supply gap is large. Even if all the devices are put into operation smoothly during the year, it can't make up for the supply gap. It still needs to import. Its import dependency is expected to decline slightly; PP import dependency is low, and more new devices are planned to be put into production, and import dependency is expected. It will be reduced to single digits; if styrene and MEG units can be put into operation smoothly, China can fully meet its own needs. It is expected that the import dependence of these two varieties will drop significantly; methanol imports are mainly due to supply gaps in East China. Due to freight factors, imported methanol has a long-term economic advantage over northwestern methanol, and the supply of goods is more stable. Its import volume may not be significantly reduced.
