In April, CCPMI showed that due to the impact of crude oil plunge, domestic chemical products rebounded slowly after bottoming out
The China Chemical Industry Purchasing Managers Index (CCPMI) for April 2020 issued by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation Hazardous Chemicals Logistics Branch and a biotechnology company was 50.03%, up 1.61 percentage points from the previous month.
Judging from the 18 sub-indexes, only 6 indexes rose from the previous month. Among them, the large-, medium-, and small-scale repair fee index rose the most, up 10%. The indexes of purchase price, safety education, environmental protection, and finished goods inventory The increase rates are all around 5%, which are 4.38%, 5%, 5% and 2.55% respectively; there is one index of reverse logistics that is the same as last month. There are 11 indexes that have been adjusted down to varying degrees. Three indexes have fallen by more than 10%. The new export orders index has fallen the most, down by 19.87%, and the purchase volume and ex-factory price indexes of main products have dropped by 11.28% and 10.46%, respectively.
In April, the rate of resumption of domestic key projects reached more than 92%. The sales of chemical products recovered to 90% of the same period last year, and the production and operation situation gradually improved. The CCPMI index rebounded steadily and slightly. However, the epidemic situation abroad affected the domestic economic and chemical industry trends for a second time, and the negative price of international crude oil affected the pace of domestic recovery. The production volume, new orders, and backlog orders all declined to varying degrees, falling 3.69%, 9.31%, and 3.87% respectively; the market sentiment was stalemate during the decline, and on the demand side, the purchase volume index fell 11.82%. The out-of-control of the international epidemic has led to the stagnation of transactions in various countries, with the largest impact on foreign trade. Both China ’s imports and exports fell, China ’s imports fell 5.51%, and new export orders were reduced by 19.87%.
In addition, the market also needs to pay attention to:
At present, the peak of the global new crown epidemic has not ended. In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, countries have generally adopted stimulating fiscal and monetary policies. This will undoubtedly cause a general increase in financial burden and leverage, and at the same time aggravate the continued turmoil in the capital market. Faced with greater external liquidity pressure; in the process of countries responding to the epidemic, their government governance model and efficiency are also facing unprecedented tests. Although the major epidemic countries have gradually lifted the ban, the future trend of the economic recovery is still facing great uncertainty because the future direction of the epidemic is still unclear.
The oil market in May is unpredictable. At present, from the perspective of the supply and demand of the crude oil market, even if OPEC + cuts production in time, it is very likely that global crude oil inventories will be officially filled up in May. The current global economy is relatively poor and demand recovery will take time. day.
However, the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress will be held on May 22, which means that the "People's War on Epidemic Prevention" will come to an end. This is also a sign that the production and living order has returned to normal and China's economy and society have officially restarted. The two associations are not just "restart buttons", they are the charge. The economic recovery cannot be recovered with one click, how to go? The two sessions will set the GDP target for this year and review the budget, which is crucial for the future economic trend. The gradual recovery of the economy will help the chemical market gradually stabilize and return to the right track.
