According to statistics from the country of origin of China's crude oil imports in recent years, the top three countries in China's total crude oil imports are basically locked in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Angola. With the deepening of energy cooperation between China and Russia, the vigorous construction of Sino-Russian oil pipelines, and the fact that both parties have begun to use RMB for settlement, Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia and maintained China's largest source of crude oil imports for four consecutive years.
Russia became China's largest crude oil supplier in April
Citing customs data, Reuters reported that Russia became China's largest crude oil supplier in April, surpassing Saudi Arabia at an average rate of 1.75 million barrels per day, compared with 1.26 million barrels per day in Saudi Arabia. In fact, last month Saudi Arabia ranked third among Chinese oil suppliers, and Iraq ranked second.
At the same time, China's imports of Russian crude oil in March increased by 31% from the same period of the previous year, and the imports from Russia in April increased by 18% from the same period of the previous year.
However, analysts believe that Saudi Arabia still has a price advantage. At present, the import price of Russian crude oil is also higher than that of Saudi Arabia. Subsequent China's crude oil import costs may rise, taking April as an example, the cost of importing Saudi crude oil is 262 US dollars / ton, the cost of importing Russian crude oil is 270 yuan / ton. As the number one buyer, China may have more initiative in the future oil market. Ship tracking company vortex said in an interview with Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia's crude oil shipments to China in May may more than double from April.
Hope to loosen oil production cuts starting in July
The Dow Jones website marketwatch.com quoted a person familiar with Russia's position as saying that Russia hopes to reduce production in accordance with the terms of the OPEC and its allies' already agreed output reduction agreement. However, some oil-producing countries participating in the joint production reduction declaration may support the continuation of the current production reduction after July, especially in the low summer gasoline demand, if the market supply is still significantly surplus.
According to the existing agreement, OPEC and non-OPEC participating in the production reduction agreement will reduce the daily output of crude oil by 9.7 million barrels from May 1 until the end of June. In the second half of this year, the daily output of crude oil will be reduced by 7.7 million barrels. From next year, the daily output of crude oil will be reduced by 5.8 million barrels until April 2022.
Russia and other non-OPEC signatories participating in the production cut will also further reduce production, including Russia ’s daily oil production in May and June is limited to 8.5 million barrels.
According to the previous experience of the joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings, any agreement to reduce production requires the unanimous consent of all participating countries. Therefore, if Russia adheres to the agreement already reached, it will be difficult for the OPEC key oil-producing countries to propose new proposals.
OPEC will hold a video conference on June 10 to discuss the next production policy.
Affected by this news, the WTI July futures settlement price on Wednesday was US $ 32.81 per barrel, a decrease of US $ 1.54 from the previous trading day, or a decrease of 4.5%. The London Brent crude oil July 2020 futures settlement price was US $ 34.74 per barrel, which was higher than the previous one. The trading day fell by 1.43 US dollars, a decrease of 4.0%.
Prohibit the import of all petroleum products
According to a decree published on the Russian government portal on May 25, Russia banned the import of refined oil, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, to protect its refining industry from cheap imported goods.
The government said in the decree that the ban will continue until October 1, which includes a ban on the import of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and gasoline to ensure the energy security of the Russian Federation and stabilize the domestic fuel market.
The purpose of banning the import of fuel is to retain the work of the Russian oil refining industry. Novak said at the end of April that due to the blockade, the demand for petroleum products at Russian gas stations plummeted by 40-50%.
Source: Mobei Public Account
