Since February, the domestic bisphenol A market has risen wildly. The price has risen from 18,500 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the end of January to the current 26,000 yuan, an increase of nearly 41%, a 10-year high. How will the bisphenol A market go in the later stage?
From the perspective of industry insiders, although the tight market supply situation has eased to a certain extent, production companies have been expected to maintain overhaul, so the supply side is still an important factor leading the rise of the BPA market. However, the downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials is becoming stronger. It is expected that although the bisphenol A market will have some room to rise in April, the rise will slow down and the risk of peaking and falling will increase.
Tightening supply is difficult to solve
According to Zhimin Hu, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, after the Spring Festival, BPA has risen continuously. The reason is that the circulation of goods has decreased and the market supply is tight. In February, Huizhou Zhongxin and Nantong Xingchen installations were shut down for maintenance. In mid-to-early March, a production line of Lihuayi was routinely maintained and shut down. In addition to the tight spot situation in the theater, BPA market offers continued to rise.
The booming bisphenol A market has boosted the enthusiasm of manufacturers. Judging from the operating rate, in March alone, there was an increase of 15% compared with the previous month. The domestic bisphenol A plants all drove normally without equipment stopping.
Zhu Zhimin said that because most factories have downstream equipment for BPA, they are basically for self-use or contract supply, and the spot export is limited, which makes the spot on the market tight. In the later period, Sinopec Mitsubishi's bisphenol A plant storage and maintenance plan, the supply side still maintains a tight pattern, and the contractual cargo at the end of March is limited, which has increased the momentum of traders' offers. In the short term, BPA still has room for growth.
As the price rises, the profits of BPA have also risen. As early as September last year, the profit of bisphenol A began to enter the upward channel, and the profit level in 2021 will be higher. The theoretical profit has risen from 4,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to more than 14,000 yuan, which is also the highest level in recent years. In the short term, this high level of profitability is expected to continue.
Material support weakened
From the perspective of bisphenol A raw materials, although the phenol market has risen sharply in March, under the condition of stable fundamentals, traders have a clear sentiment to stabilize prices. At the same time, due to the relatively weak downstream buying sentiment, negotiations are in a stalemate, the price of phenol is difficult to rise, and the cost support for bisphenol A has weakened.
Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd., introduced that the market for acetone, another raw material for bisphenol A, is pushing up towards the end of March. Downstream buying sentiment has improved, and the number of inquiries entering the market has increased, which has further contributed to the rising sentiment of traders, and the focus of negotiations has rapidly risen. However, the high price is only a flash in the pan. As downstream demand returns to be light, the acetone market has begun a rational correction.
Looking at the market outlook, phenol is still in the off-season in demand, and the downstream terminal replenishment sentiment is not high, and only a small amount of rigid demand is maintained. The downstream isopropanol plant of acetone remains in a shutdown state; the MMA market trend is also weak, and the purchase of acetone by manufacturers is decreasing; the price of MIBK is at a high level, there is resistance in the downstream, and the consumption of acetone is also limited.
The industry believes that the cost is negative for the BPA market, and the right to speak in the leading trend of raw materials is weakened.
Insufficient demand support
Jinlianchuang analyst Wang Yingchao introduced that as the price of bisphenol A rose sharply, resistance in downstream epoxy resin, PC and other industries has increased, thus weakening the upward momentum of the bisphenol A market.
At present, the liquid resin enterprises are operating normally, and the installation load is about 60%; the solid resin enterprises are affected by the Huangshan environmental protection inspection, and the installation load continues to be low, at about 40-50%.
"In the later stage, the operating rate of the epoxy resin industry is still expected to fall, and there is insufficient support for the raw material bisphenol A market." Wang Yingchao analyzed.
From the perspective of another downstream PC industry of bisphenol A, under the high cost, although domestic PC manufacturers raise prices, the market has limited intention to follow the increase, and merchants are more cautious and wait and see. At present, PC manufacturers are under great cost pressure, and many companies are shipping upside down. PC downstream terminal factories are under limited pressure on high-priced sources, and the demand for receiving orders is too much, and the terminal consumption is not good. Affected by the interweaving of high cost and low demand, PC manufacturers are currently running at reduced load.
According to reports, the 300,000-ton/year PC plant of Luxi Chemical Industry reduced its load on March 11, and the overall load is now about 20%; Sinopec Mitsubishi’s 60,000-ton/year PC plant started a single line; Ganning Petrochemical’s 70,000-ton/year PC The device has been shut down for maintenance, and the subsequent drive time has not been determined; the 100,000-ton/year PC device of Zhonglan Guosu was shut down for maintenance in early January, and it has not been driven yet.
Wang Chaoying said that the PC industry's operating rate is declining due to cost constraints, and the raw material purchase intention is weak, only maintaining rigid demand, which weakens the kinetic energy of bisphenol A to continue to rise sharply.
