Recently, the Ministry of Public Security issued a notice that the whole country will carry out the "One Helmet and One Belt" safety guard operation, where "One Belt" refers to the safety belt and "One Helmet" refers to the safety helmet.
Actively implemented in many places, from June 1 this year, in order to ensure the safety of people traveling, violations of riding motorcycles / electric cars without wearing safety helmets and driving without using seat belts will be strictly investigated.
According to statistics, about 80% of the deaths of electric bicycle occupants are caused by craniocerebral injury, but if the safety helmet is properly worn, the risk of death from traffic accidents can be reduced by 60% to 70%.
According to relevant data, there are about 90 million motorcycles in China and nearly 300 million electric automatic vehicles. There are also many unregistered vehicles. However, only about 30% of people actually wear helmets to travel, and at least 70% of them have a gap in helmet demand. If the current unit price of the helmet is about 100 yuan, the helmet market alone exceeds 10 billion yuan.
Driven by national policies, the popularity of safety helmets has skyrocketed for a while, which will drive helmet-related chemical raw materials to usher in peak demand in the short term.
Helmet related chemical raw materials
Helmets generally include an outer shell, a cushioning layer, an inner lining layer, a jaw guard, a tie, and lenses.
The outer shell of the helmet is the outermost layer of the helmet. It bears and disperses the impact during impact, so the selection of the outer shell material is very important.
Mainly polycarbonate materials (PC), PC / ABS alloy materials, carbon fiber materials, fiberglass materials, etc., polycarbonate (PC) and PC / ABS plastic alloys, the two most commonly used materials.
Among them, PC / ABS overcomes the low temperature brittleness of PC and has the best rigidity-toughness balance. However, FRP and carbon fiber materials have a high safety factor, are expensive, and have a small market share.
The helmet buffer layer plays a buffering effect when it is hit by external forces. It is usually made of materials that can absorb collision energy, be non-toxic, harmless, sweat-absorbent and breathable.
Mostly expanded polystyrene (EPS), expanded polypropylene (EPP) and thermoplastic polyurethane (PU) materials.
Since the foamed polypropylene (EPP) material is non-toxic and odorless to the human body, it can be recycled and will gradually replace the foamed polystyrene (EPS) material.
The helmet face mirror protects the rider from wind, sand, rain and flying insects, ensures driving safety, and at the same time effectively protects the rider's face in the event of a traffic accident. PC has a series of advantages such as high transparency and high impact resistance, and is the best material for helmet mirrors.
Short-term price rises, long-term need to remain cautious
It is reported that the price of helmets has risen, and many friends who bought helmets online commented that it is too difficult! The previous three or fifty helmets! Now selling more than one hundred!
The downstream market is so hot, upstream ABS and PP plastics are also affected! Styrene / PP futures strengthened! The spot market has also been raised! However, the actual demand for helmets in this policy may be much lower than the theoretical value.
ABS: In a helmet of about 500g, the amount of ABS is in the range of 350-400g, which is relatively large. According to the calculation of the demand for 100 million helmets, the total amount of ABS is up to 40,000 tons, accounting for about 0.9% of the annual output, and the proportion is relatively small. However, under the current situation of tight supply of ABS in the market, there is no shortage of merchants who can use this event to speculate, and individual models have risen more than 1,000 yuan. The average model materials have increased by about 200-300 yuan / ton. It is recommended that the market be cautious. It is understood that the ABS grades that can be used as raw materials for helmet shells in the market are high-impact ABS, such as 709 (Chimei), 749SK (Chimei), 10np (Taihua), AE8000 (Taihua), 140 (LG), etc. Materials 121H, 0215A, 417, 757K, 15A1, etc. are also very popular.
EPS: In a helmet of about 500g, the amount of EPS is about 100g without considering the expansion ratio, which is relatively small. The grades are mainly small particles such as P303 / P401. According to the calculation according to the demand of 100 million helmets, the total EPS consumption is about 10,500 tons, accounting for about 0.34% of the annual output, and the overall proportion is relatively small. Under market sentiment, prices have risen in the short term, but it is difficult to support long-term highs.
PC: In the first half of the first half of the market, the industry has no new production capacity, and the price difference between PC and raw materials is very small, the news is released, and it once again touched the market speculation button. At present, many models in the South China market have increased by nearly 1,000 yuan, while most others have increased by more than 200 yuan / ton. The East China market is relatively cautious for the time being, the overall fluctuation is relatively limited, but imported materials have also changed last week. , Domestic materials will temporarily wait and see the manufacturers' quotation guidance.
According to the calculation based on the demand of 100 million helmets, the total PC usage is at most 15,000 tons, accounting for only about 1.5% of the annual output in 2019, and the impact is small. In 2020, domestic PC output is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%, far exceeding the increase in demand for PCs driven by helmet mirrors, so it will be difficult to become a "life-saving straw" to reverse the decline of the domestic PC industry in the future. Recently, the overall supply of the domestic PC market has remained ample, and the downstream demand is lackluster. With the commissioning of large-scale new devices and the end of the domestic maintenance season, the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to intensify. Weak expectations remain.
Source: Mobei Public Account
