Since September, shipments of some monoammonium companies have been slightly tight. In particular, some large factories in Hubei have received orders of tens of thousands of tons from the northeast, and the overall waiting rate is as high as 150,000 tons. Some enterprises with low production capacity in Sichuan and Henan have also It is said that shipments have been tight recently. Although there are not many new orders in the downstream, most of them are small orders, but the customers are eager to ask for the goods, which makes the production and shipment of enterprises tight. In this way, the situation of monoammonium is very similar to the meaning of price increase. From past experience, the quotation of monoammonium should have the possibility of rising, but the actual transaction price increase still depends on the subsequent demand situation.
At present, the overall demand for monoammonium is not large. Except for a few monoammonium companies whose new orders are in good condition, the recent new orders of other companies are mostly small orders and urgent orders. The price reduction of monoammonium in August caused some downstream compound fertilizers. Companies have replenished their warehouses. In addition to the undigested raw material monoammonium, compound fertilizer companies are still waiting to see the new round of monoammonium purchases. However, attention to monoammonium has indeed increased, mainly due to the recent Northeast There are signs that the demand for monoammonium in the region has started. The above mentioned that the large ammonium plant in Hubei received tens of thousands of tons of orders in the northeast, mainly from several compound fertilizer plants in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. The author understands that there are only a few in the Northeast in the recent period. The compound fertilizer plant began to purchase the raw material monoammonium. Most other compound fertilizer companies have not taken any action yet. Most companies are planning to start construction in mid-to-late October, and plan to purchase monoammonium by the end of September or around November. It is understood that the company will start construction. The time has been delayed compared to previous years. If the demand for monoammonium from compound fertilizer companies in the Northeast recovers, it will have a certain boost to the overall national demand for monoammonium, but the specific situation still needs to be monitored.
In addition to looking at demand, it also depends on supply. As of the second week of September, the operating rate of the national monoammonium industry was 50%, and the operating rate of the monoammonium industry in Hubei was close to 60%. Several large factories were almost fully opened, mainly supplying tens of thousands of tons of pending orders, and they had compound fertilizers. The company's own use of monoammonium devices has also increased, so companies are more eager to produce and ship. For companies with small production volumes, the recent production and delivery are also tight, but it is not because of the large volume of new orders, mainly because downstream customers are in a hurry to request goods. Their own pending shipments plus recent small orders and urgent orders have caused short-term enterprise shipping tensions. Most companies should maintain this tight supply in September. However, as new orders decrease and become less concentrated in October, the supply pressure of some companies will gradually increase. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the inventory and start of operations of monoammonium companies. Variety.
In addition to supply, it also depends on raw materials. Recently, the author has learned from phosphate rock traders that the price of phosphate rock has not changed significantly, and should remain stable in the short term. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in Hubei has increased due to the decrease in the supply of goods, and the current mainstream acceptance factory is around 2,600-2650 yuan/ton, but the overall liquid ammonia price is still relatively low. Although sulfur prices rose sharply at the beginning of the month due to factors such as rising international sulfur prices, high port stocks are still a major factor hindering the rise of sulfur. In addition, sulfur demand is not ideal, and there is unlikely to be a big increase in the short term. The price of granular sulfur is around 700 yuan/ton. Based on the current sales price and full cost of monoammonium, the profit of 55% powdered monoammonium should reach around 200 yuan/ton. It is reported that the profit is higher for companies that own raw materials such as phosphate rock. Downstream compound fertilizer companies and traders see this situation and their acceptance of monoammonium price increases should not be too high.
Generally speaking, the demand for monoammonium is not as good as it seems. In addition to the supply and raw material costs, the price of monoammonium should be stable in the short term. The price of monoammonium is expected to rise in the later period, but whether the actual price is still solid Need to pay attention to the follow-up needs and other situations.
Source: Chemical Network
