The National Bureau of Statistics recently released statistics on the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country from January to June. In the first half of this year, the total profits of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 32.2%, of which the profits of the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries changed from the same period. Loss.
Affected by the plunge in international oil prices and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, modern coal chemical industry is one of the industries that have suffered the most impact. Many projects have fallen below the break-even point and the industry has suffered large losses. Although the current situation has eased and production has resumed, the industry as a whole is still facing unprecedented difficulties. When will it stop the decline and stabilize, and stably enter the recovery channel? Will the impact of external factors continue to the "14th Five-Year Plan" period? A new stage of development is about to usher in, how can modern coal chemical industry achieve breakthroughs?
Recently, at the "14th Five-Year" planning guide for the petrochemical industry held by the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, many experts gave their own suggestions.
The negative impact of oil prices hovering at low and medium levels will continue
Coal prices and oil prices are two key factors that affect the profitability of coal chemical projects. Han Hongmei, deputy chief engineer of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, said that from the perspective of the price relationship between energy and chemical products, from 2013 to 2019, coal prices rose and product prices fell, squeezing the profitability of the modern coal chemical industry. Especially in the past six months, in the context of low oil prices, most projects have been extremely difficult to operate. Affected by this, the overall progress of the demonstration project is slow, and the corresponding technical upgrade tasks are also difficult to implement.
In addition to the price of raw materials, there are profitable "critical oil prices" for different projects. The coal-to-liquid projects, which are mainly oil products and chemicals, correspond to US$70-75/barrel and US$55-60/barrel respectively; the coal-to-olefin and coal-to-glycol projects correspond to US$45-50/barrel respectively. Barrel, 50-55 US dollars/barrel oil price; after conversion, the critical point of coal-based natural gas oil price is 2.0 yuan/Nm3.
"At present, if oil prices continue to be at the level of US$40-50/barrel, only coal-to-olefins can maintain a basic balance, and other projects are more difficult. Even if some companies are profitable, it is not ruled out that they rely on the transfer of coal profits. Said Bai Yi, a professor-level senior engineer at the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute.
Bai Yi analyzed that in the second half of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, international energy prices continued to advance in the process of rebalancing, and oil prices fluctuated at the low to mid-range of 50-70 US dollars per barrel. To a certain extent, this will reduce the cost of petrochemical raw materials. If it lasts too long, it will also lead to an overall downturn in the chemical industry, and product prices will fall, further intensifying the impact on modern coal chemicals. "When researching the '14th Five-Year Plan', we must fully consider the low oil price factor."
"Long-term low and medium oil prices will profoundly affect the decision-making of coal chemical projects. Through technological advancement and strengthened management, the extent to which modern coal chemical industry can withstand oil price shocks and achieve breakeven is the focus of the current and the '14th Five-Year Plan' period." Han Hongmei said.
In a sense, the impact of falling international oil prices has also confirmed the importance of the modern coal chemical industry. "No matter how oil prices fluctuate, China's'lean oil' pattern will not change. The more uncertain the international situation, the more it will sound the alarm for the supply of oil products. Coal chemical industry is suitable for the production of bulk chemicals and oil products, which can just make up for oil resources. Not enough.” said Liu Zhongmin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and director of the Dalian Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The progress of the demonstration project is slow and the application side is not paying enough attention
Bai Yi said that compared with the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", more emphasis is placed on the technology and process of replacing petrochemical products with coal chemicals. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the industry will focus on optimization and upgrading and green development. In the past five years, the raw material coal consumption, comprehensive energy consumption, and industrial water consumption of modern coal chemical industry have continued to decline, and energy efficiency has improved. But at the same time, the progress of demonstration projects is still slow. "Crude oil prices are generally low, coupled with factors such as rising coal prices and stricter environmental protection, the industry cannot always be in a state of rapid development."
At the same time, the existing products are mostly researched from the production side, and the attention to the application side is far from enough. Bai Yi said that in terms of investment, production and operation, and technology research and development, the phenomenon of "emphasizing products and neglecting applications" is prominent. When the industry develops to a certain stage and there are more bulk products, how to better utilize the specificity and characteristics of the products should become a new focus. "For users to consider and launch applications in a targeted manner, there is still a gap between us and large foreign companies."
The above-mentioned limitations further bring risks such as homogeneous competition and overcapacity. For example, Han Hongmei, the coal-to-ethylene glycol project has developed rapidly and maintained an average annual growth rate of 19.5% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, which has become an effective supplement to petrochemical products. However, while expanding capacity and speeding up, technical and economic risks still exist.
"In the first half of this year, the project operation rate was only 30%-40%. Petrochemical ethylene glycol and imported ethylene glycol have brought huge competition, and the industry is under great pressure." Han Hongmei said frankly that the positioning of the coal-to-ethylene glycol industry is still unclear. Coupled with the investment and construction of a new round of petrochemical ethylene glycol projects along the eastern coast, the market space continues to narrow. From the user's point of view, it is very important to find the target market.
Many experts also said that it is impossible to have technology and no production capacity. Even for strategic reserve projects such as coal-to-liquid and coal-to-gas, it is necessary to maintain daily production and operation and realize the integration of technical reserves and capacity reserves. "From the perspective of energy foundation, energy strategy, energy security, etc., coal-based oil and gas is one of the independent and controllable backup energy production methods. However, due to pressure, some coal-based oil and gas projects have to be converted or co-produced, and the capacity reserve function is affected. Impact.” An industry insider told reporters that at present, coal-based oil and gas demonstration projects are still planned by companies themselves. How to meet national needs and market demands at the same time is the prerequisite for seeking survival and development.
Pay attention to the industry "value chain" to avoid increment and efficiency
As of the end of last year, my country's modern coal chemical industry has achieved 155 million tons of raw coal conversion, accounting for approximately 5.6% of coal consumption, and the development of the industry has taken shape. Nowadays, under the impact of low oil prices and other shocks, how to reconstruct the value chain in line with the characteristics of the industry has become an important issue during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
Bai Yi suggested to highlight the characteristics of high-end development, reflect the selective development model, and avoid "increment without efficiency." From the overall perspective, promote the upgrading of the coal-based clean energy industry and help the efficient development of the national energy system; scientifically grasp the process of coal-to-chemicals and optimize the construction plan. For enterprises themselves, actively carry out research on industrial diagnosis and industry benchmarking analysis, optimize the use of resource allocation and energy grading measures, and study the adaptability of product brands, performance and market development. Combining regional characteristics, analyzing external conditions such as environment and logistics, avoiding "big and complete" and dogmatic development directions determined in accordance with the industrial chain thinking, paying attention to the industrial "value chain".
Han Hongmei said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, appropriate development will be carried out with the goal of enhancing industrial competitiveness. Especially for new projects, high-quality projects must be built, and attention must be paid to actively adapt to new trends in industrial development and new market requirements. On this basis, break through key technical bottlenecks, improve system integration and optimization, and further improve resource utilization and environmental protection.
In addition to "single fight alone", the participating experts also proposed the development direction of industrial integration and integration, and explored the formation of a new model of oil, gas and electricity polygeneration with modern coal chemical industry as the core. "The upstream is combined with coal, the midstream is combined with electricity, metallurgy, etc., and the downstream is integrated with textiles, agriculture, and building materials, thereby further improving the overall coal conversion efficiency and clean and high-efficiency level."
In addition, Han Hongmei suggested that coal-to-methanol and chemical hydrogen can be included in the scope of modern coal chemical industry from the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Among them, the promotion of methanol vehicles and methanol marine fuel has opened up very good market prospects for application expansion; hydrogen energy is the development focus of my country and the world, and one of the supports for the start of the hydrogen energy industry is chemical hydrogen technology.
"Alcohol-hydrogen new energy will bring more opportunities to modern coal chemical industry." Han Hongmei, for example, can promote the construction of large methanol energy bases and build a base, large-scale, low-investment, and high-level coal-to-methanol production capacity layout; take the project as an example. To promote the development of methanol equipment manufacturing industry and establish a complete methanol economic system; consider the integration and demonstration of hydrogen production from renewable energy and the chemical industry at an appropriate time to help the development of "green zero-carbon chemical industry."
Source: Chemical Network
