At 24:00 on August 23, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. Affected by the shock and lower international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices are expected to usher in "five consecutive declines", which will also be the sixth reduction this year.
Analysts said that since mid-to-late June, the international oil price trend has weakened, and the overall market fell significantly compared with the first half of the year. Affected by the decline of international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil retail prices also fell high. Recently, the international crude oil futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the market concerns about the economic and demand outlook is still the main influencing factor leading to the decline in oil prices. At the same time, market expectations of slower energy demand growth have also put pressure on oil prices.
The agency estimates that as of August 22, the ninth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 93.34 US dollars per barrel, the change rate of-4.06%, domestic gasoline and diesel is expected to be reduced by 210 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.2 yuan per liter. After this round of oil price adjustment, 95 gasoline is expected to return to the "8 yuan era".
According to analysts, the world's energy system is being severely tested once again by the risk of supply chain disruptions. If the energy crisis in Europe continues to escalate, it will eventually affect the crude oil market and support oil prices.
Analysts expressed the same view, " Higher demand for electricity generation oil due to high summer temperatures and soaring gas prices will partly offset weak demand from recession concerns. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also raised its demand growth forecast for 2022, providing some support for oil prices.”
In the long run, the international oil prices will remain high and volatile. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics at Xiamen University, told China in an interview with Singapore Finance, " Unlike previous concerns about oil supply in the Russian and Ukrainian conflict markets, this round of international oil price decline is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rates, which has intensified concerns about oil demand. But with high gas prices, oil prices will not fall very much."(Ge Cheng)
