According to a pre-announcement of emergency peak shift preparations issued by Yunnan Power Grid on May 10, Yunnan’s main reservoirs are currently severely overdrawn, coal storage in thermal power continues to decline, and power generation is seriously worse than expected. There is a power gap of about 700,000 kilowatts at the peak of the day. Electricity companies in various prefectures and regions have begun emergency peak-shifting power restrictions, and the peak-shifting power limit will be 10-30%.
According to Caixin, there are only 500,000 tons of coal in Yunnan’s province. “Some thermal power plants are only enough for one or two days.” However, with the fermentation of the situation, the power curtailment measures have been upgraded. Enterprise power consumption control will continue until mid-June.
It is understood that the order of power control in industrial enterprises this time is electrolytic aluminum (first class), yellow phosphorus (second class), cement (second class), iron and steel (second class), lead and zinc (third class).
Yellow phosphorus market supply has plummeted and prices have soared
Our country's yellow phosphorus production areas are concentrated in the four provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Hubei, of which Yunnan accounts for about 65% of the production.
In the early morning of the 25th, the entire line of yellow phosphorus installations in Yunnan was shut down, and the start of yellow phosphorus in the province dropped to zero, which continued to lower the operating rate of the yellow phosphorous market, forming a favorable support for the yellow phosphorous market.
The yellow phosphorus market in Guizhou is currently operating at a low rate. At present, only 5 electric furnaces in Kaiyang and 2 electric furnaces in Fuquan Chuandong are in production. The daily output is only around 150 tons, and the operating rate is 18.2%.
The start of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Sichuan dropped slightly, and the output of asbestos enterprises decreased slightly. The daily output in the province was around 550 tons, and the operating rate was 61%.
On the whole, the overall operating rate of my country's yellow phosphorus market is currently around 22%, and the total daily output is less than 900 tons, which is a decrease of more than 1,400 tons from the daily output in early May, which is a significant reduction.
Under the influence of the extreme contraction in supply, the domestic yellow phosphorous price went out of the skyrocketing market.
On May 24, the mainstream transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Southwest China was 23,500 yuan/ton, which was nearly 5,700 yuan higher than the transaction price on May 19! In other words, in just 5 days, the market price of yellow phosphorus increased by 32%!
Glyphosate companies pay, the short-term market is still bullish
In the face of such crazy rising prices, downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate companies have very limited acceptance of high prices, and most companies stop production to wait and see the market. However, due to the current strong market demand and high price of glyphosate, the acceptance of high-priced yellow phosphorus is acceptable. At present, most glyphosate companies or speculative traders are still purchasing at this price.
In the short term, the supply of the yellow phosphorus market is tight, and Yunnan’s power curtailment will continue until the end of the month. If the power curtailment is suspended until mid-June, the yellow phosphorus market will hardly be improved in the near future. As the overall supply continues to be tight, the market price of yellow phosphorus may still have room to rise.
Source: Mobile Public Account
