Recently, some netizens posted antigen-positive photos on social media platforms, claiming to be "Second infection of COVID-19". Meanwhile, some regions have reported new cases of XBB.1.16 variant. The May Day holiday is approaching, and with the increase in personnel mobility nationwide, many people are worried that the next peak of the epidemic will come?
It is unlikely to experience a large-scale secondary infection in the near future
With regard to the recent trend of the COVID-19, Li Dong, chief physician of the Department of Respiratory and infectious diseases of Beijing You'an Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University, told chinanews. com that since many places have announced that they can not wear masks, many people have also relaxed their personal protection. In addition to the upcoming May Day holiday, the number of people going out and gathering may increase, and the number of infected people may increase.
He said that the population that may increase the risk of infection in the near future is mainly those who have not been infected before, have not been vaccinated, and have low immunity. Their antibody levels decrease faster. Therefore, he suggested that these people should strengthen personal protection and reduce their visits to crowded areas and areas with poor airflow.
Jin Dongyan, a professor of the College of Biomedical Sciences of the Li Ka shing School of Medicine of Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine and an expert in virology, said in an interview with www.chinanews.com that the increase in the flow of people during the "May Day" holiday has led to a small increase in the epidemic situation at most. At present, there is no soil or conditions for the large-scale epidemic of COVID-19 in China.
There is currently no significant increase in the incidence and severity of illness
Li Dong once introduced that from the current hospitalization rate and the incidence of severe illness, no significant changes have been found compared to before. The pathogenicity of XBB.1.16 variant has not increased compared to before.
There is a view that there has been an increase in conjunctivitis patients recently, but in fact, previous infections with the original strain and other Omicron strains have also experienced conjunctivitis symptoms. Therefore, more data is needed to support the above argument. He said that currently, XBB.1.16 has little difference in symptoms from the previously discovered strains.
Jin Dongyan stated that the recently discovered XBB.1.16 strain in China is a BA. 2 derived strain, and its pathogenicity has not significantly improved, so there is no need to worry too much. Judging from the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in many countries and regions around the world, the possibility of local or global large-scale outbreaks caused by XBB. 1.16 in the future is very small.
"COVID-19 is moving towards influenza"
On the afternoon of April 20, Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases (Shanghai) and director of the Department of Infection of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, responded to the question on whether COVID-19 will become influenza in the future at a forum.
He said that there are many subtypes of influenza every year, with genetic recombination, more mutated strains, and greater volatility; The subtype of COVID-19 is substitutive, and the latter replaces the former, without gene recombination. If no special circumstances occur, it will become more and more like the existing coronavirus, which will continue to exist, but the sense of existence is not as strong. Whether it will eventually become influenza or not depends on the characteristics of its later mutations.
Li Dong once believed that COVID-19 is now moving towards influenza. "Sporadic cases will occur repeatedly among some people, and the incidence rate may increase in winter and spring, which are in line with some characteristics of influenza."
He stated that the immune escape ability and infectivity of the mutated virus may increase, and whether another virus with particularly strong immune escape ability will lead to the peak of the epidemic requires continuous observation of the mutation situation.
