After the Spring Festival, the plasticizer industry chain performed eye-catchingly. The prices of raw materials and plasticizers such as dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and dioctyl phthalate (DOP) have reached new highs, with an increase of more than 35. %.
Industry insiders believe that under the support of effective control of the epidemic and a sharp rebound in terminal demand after the holiday, this “feast” dominated by raw materials will continue, but the risk of plasticizer product prices peaking is also accumulating.
Wayward rise of raw materials
Zhongyu Information analyst Liu Dongyuan said that after the Spring Festival, the soaring market of raw materials octanol and n-butanol opened the prelude to the surge of the plasticizer industry chain.
From the perspective of octanol, major downstream companies started stocking before the holiday, and orders for octanol gradually accumulated. Although the industry operating rate is at a high level as a whole, it has even reached more than 90%, but the tight inventory situation is still intensifying. In addition, some logistics companies in Shandong area suspended operations ahead of schedule, resulting in tight capacity and tightening the butanol spot. The market has entered a strong cycle before the Spring Festival.
After the Spring Festival, octanol hit a historical skyrocket, with an average daily increase of nearly 2,000 yuan within 3 days, an increase of 40%, and the price continued to rise to around 16,500 yuan. The n-butanol market is not to be outdone, showing an "explosive" rise. The current price has exceeded 15,000 yuan, which is more than 40% higher than the pre-holiday increase. Manufacturers have a large order volume, shipments continue to be tight, downstream factories concentrated on restocking, manufacturers' inventories continue to be tight, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere continues to heat up.
The downstream butyl ester factory, another raw material, n-butanol, saw a significant increase in domestic and foreign trade orders during the Spring Festival. Enterprises generally maintained high-load production, and demand for n-butanol for replenishment increased significantly. However, the load of n-butanol manufacturers has dropped. The short-term shutdown of the equipment and the overhaul of a set of equipment in Luxi have exacerbated the shortage of supply after the holiday. The market quotations of n-butanol have skyrocketed.
Regarding the market outlook, industry insiders said that the inventories of octanol manufacturers are generally at a low level, and some continue to maintain a negative inventory state. The market outlook is based on abundant orders. It is expected that the spot shortage will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market still has room for growth. The bull market caused by the imbalance between the supply and demand of n-butanol will continue, and the upward cycle is expected to extend.
Plasticizer linkage pulls up
Jinlianchuang analyst Han Ping introduced that under the strong drive of the raw material n-butanol, the plasticizer market has swept away from the previously tepid situation, showing a linear upward trend. At present, the price of DOP has rapidly increased from 10,000 yuan to about 14,000 yuan, a new high since 2012, and the increase is 36% over the pre-holiday; DBP price is running to 12,500 to 13,000 yuan, an increase of 3700 to 4,000 yuan compared to the previous year. , An increase of 43%.
Judging from the current operating conditions of manufacturers, on the basis of the local New Year policy and good order status, the holiday operating level is generally higher than that of previous years. The operating rate of DOP and DBP industries exceeds 50%. There is no inventory accumulation situation, and the production and sales pressure of manufacturers is not Big.
But according to the manufacturer, although the price of plasticizers has risen sharply, companies still face the risk of high costs, low profits and even losses. On the cost side, the profit margins of octanol and n-butanol are increasing, with octanol reaching more than 8,000 yuan, while plasticizer products are converted at spot prices, and profit margins are constantly compressed, hovering near the cost line, and factory production pressure is high.
Despite this, low inventory will still add momentum to the future operation of plasticizers. In addition, the industry's operating level is expected to change little, and the contradiction between market supply and demand is not obvious. Therefore, in the short term, there is no risk of a sharp drop in the plasticizer market.
But some insiders also said that the rapid surge in the plasticizer market has weakened the enthusiasm of downstream purchases, increased cost transmission pressure, and increased the risk of plasticizer market peaking.
The demand is better than the same period
Jilin Petrochemical salesperson He Junsong introduced that according to the practice of previous years, before the Spring Festival, due to downstream and terminal companies' production cuts or even suspension of production for holidays, the plasticizer market mostly entered a stagnant state, and most companies completed their raw material procurement ahead of the Spring Festival. However, this year, thanks to the excellent situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control and rising domestic and foreign demand, the plasticizer industry chain market has started a super "bull market" around the Spring Festival. The demand for terminal solvents and packaging materials has risen sharply. The increasing demand and the operating rate of production enterprises are better than in previous years, giving the market strong momentum.
He Junsong said that after the Lantern Festival, the downstream operating rate may rise slightly, and the lift plasticizer market tends to rise but hardly fall.
In addition, combined with the expectation of accelerated recovery at the macro level, it is expected that the upstream strong cycle such as crude oil will begin, and the industry's prosperity will enter a new round of upward cycle. Industry insiders predict that the chemical market in March and even the entire first half of the year will show more than expected, so the overall performance of the plasticizer industry chain will be better than 2020.
