Based on practical needs such as ensuring energy security, the development of coal-based energy is of great strategic significance and is regarded as an effective supplement to petrochemical industry, and is even expected to replace it. In recent years, while the coal-based energy industry has developed rapidly, it has also been criticized for its outstanding problems such as poor economy, large carbon dioxide emissions, and high water consumption. As the "14th Five-Year Plan" is approaching, how coal-based energy finds an environment suitable for its own development while meeting national needs and market demands has become the focus of the industry.
"From the perspectives of research capabilities, catalysts, scale-up technology, and large-scale plant operation experience, China’s modern coal chemical industry is already at the world’s leading level. However, at the same time, we must also see the status quo that the industry’s advantages are hindered. Taking coal to olefins as an example, the investment in a project with an annual output of 600,000 tons will cost nearly 200 billion yuan. Calculated, the entire industry has invested more than ten trillion yuan, and the total profit of coal chemical industry in 2019 is 2.57 billion yuan, which is less than investment. A few thousandths of that.” At the “30 People Forum of China Energy and Chemical Industry” held recently, Jin Yong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, used a set of figures to compare and pointed out the “fatal weakness” of the industry.
Based on practical needs such as ensuring energy security, the development of coal-based energy is of great strategic significance, and it is regarded as an effective supplement to petrochemical industry, and is even expected to replace it. However, according to Jin Yong, in terms of project investment, the ratio of coal-based to petroleum-based is still 8.75:1, and the economy of the former needs to be improved urgently. How to find an environment suitable for its own development while meeting the needs of the country and the market has become the focus of the industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
There is still a distance from "strategic reserve" to "strategic industry"
Many experts said that no matter how low oil prices are, my country’s high dependence on foreign countries will not undergo a fundamental change. my country's energy structure and the relationship between supply and demand determine the strategic position of coal-based energy.
"Under the framework of the modern energy system to carry out energy transformation and structural optimization, the primary task and foothold is to realize the clean, efficient and sustainable development and utilization of traditional energy, especially coal." said Xie Kechang, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. "Coal for oil" includes Substituting petroleum-based fuels and petroleum-based chemicals, the output value of various products has reached one trillion yuan. "Unfortunately, this strategic positioning has been vacillating and has not really been determined."
Bao Xinhe, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of the University of Science and Technology of China, said that the preparation of chemicals is inseparable from carbon resources. Because of the huge demand for chemicals in my country, the annual consumption of carbon resources in the chemical and material fields is calculated at 100 million tons. "For a long time, the way to obtain carbon resources by relying on fossil energy will not change. Judging from the proven mining volume, China's oil and natural gas can be mined for about 12 or 30 years, and coal can be mined for more than 50 years. For a certain period of time, especially in the turbulent international environment, the main energy source that is truly reliable is still coal. Therefore, the clean and efficient use of coal should be determined as a national strategy."
When does the "strategic reserve" play a role? Jin Yong said that the correct judgment of when coal is needed to replace oil is also a key point for the modern coal chemical industry to truly transform from a strategic reserve to a strategic industry. If the time is too early, the company will have no profit and consume a lot of resources.
"At least at this stage, it is impractical to replace petroleum and natural gas with coal-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid gas. Most of the coal-to-liquid products are diesel, but China's refining and chemical production capacity is already surplus, and special products such as high-density kerosene and paraffin have advantages. However, the market capacity is limited. The development of coal-to-gas is also limited. Take the Datang Keqi project as an example, the price has dropped from 2.75 yuan per cubic meter to 1.75 yuan and then to 1. Even the only bright spot, coal-to-olefins, has seen a decline in profit , We need to find a way out in the direction of refinement, high-end, and deep processing." Jin Yong believes that there is still a long way to go from a strategic reserve of coal-based energy to a strategic industry. "The current positioning is to reserve technology, not alternative technology, mainstream technology."
Win by quantity, not dominant, lack of low-priced, unique products
What is the distance of coal-based energy from a strategic reserve to a strategic industry? The reporter learned that factors such as the internal and external environment and the industry's own limitations have an impact.
Taking the representative of strategic reserves-coal to oil as an example, Zhang Jiming, assistant to the general manager of National Energy Group, said that the overall global oil and gas supply is in a loose state, and low oil prices will be the norm. The "shale gas revolution" in the United States has brought abundant and low-priced light hydrocarbon resources such as ethane and propane, attracting global petrochemical giants to invest in building plants. At the same time, my country's coastal large-scale petrochemical projects are intensively constructed. The 22 large-scale refining and chemical integration projects currently in production, under construction and planning have a total refining capacity of 264 million tons/year. If all production goes into operation, the petrochemical industry will enter an era of overcapacity. "Under the current conditions, it is difficult for coal-to-liquid to achieve the scale of a petrochemical project. Although it has characteristics, it also faces difficulties."
Zhang Jiming further stated that despite the relatively small scale, the investment intensity per unit capacity of coal chemical projects is 5-10 times that of petrochemical projects. In addition, the product structure of coal chemical projects is single, and it is difficult to achieve cascade utilization. A project usually can only produce 1-2 main products; it is difficult to form a base pattern, similar to a 10 million-ton-level integrated base of petroleum refining, requiring at least investment More than 100 billion yuan. "Winning by quantity is not dominant, and seeking comparative advantages through differentiation, there is currently a lack of low-cost or unique products."
Bao Xinhe believes that in addition to economic factors, environmental issues such as carbon dioxide emissions, water consumption, exhaust gas, and waste residues must also be completely resolved. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the entire industry to go far, and international recognition and social acceptance will also be limited.
"The structure and reaction process of coal determines that combustion will definitely produce carbon dioxide. Burning 1 ton of coal will inevitably emit more than 3 tons of carbon dioxide. However, the current cost of carbon reduction is very high and it is difficult for ordinary enterprises to bear. Coal chemical projects are often large water users, coal The waste gas and solid waste produced by the burning of impurities also put great pressure on the environment. In principle, the use of modern technology can realize the recycling of waste water, the harmless treatment of waste and the comprehensive utilization of resources, but these costs are increasing year by year. "Bao Xinhe said.
Jin Yong also claimed that, except for sulfur dioxide emissions lower than petrochemicals, the water consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of coal-based projects are currently 13 times and 3.5 times that of petrochemical projects. From the perspective of resource and environmental constraints, investment in safety and environmental protection will continue to increase.
Realize the transition from "enough" to "good or bad"
Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, coal-to-liquid, gas, olefin, ethylene glycol and other products have maintained a double-digit annual growth rate. Experts at the meeting agreed that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry must transform from "enough" to "good or bad".
Xie Kechang said that the development of coal-based energy requires a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. Specifically, actively develop pollution prevention technologies, relying on demonstration projects to achieve industrialization as soon as possible; based on the environmental capacity of air, water and soil, scientifically deploy the coal-based chemical industry; establish and improve clean production standards and environmental protection policies, and improve the clean production management system. Deploy cutting-edge research and development of carbon capture and storage technologies in advance to expand the utilization of carbon dioxide resources; complement and integrate with renewable energy to build a low-carbon coal-based integrated energy industry base; breakthrough the bottleneck of source emission reduction and energy saving through technology, Weakening the high carbon nature of coal-based energy. The government should clarify the strategic significance and industrial positioning of coal-based energy and chemical industry as the "ballast stone" for my country's energy security, and orderly promote upgrading demonstration, moderate commercialization and full industrialization. Optimize the industrial structure, strictly require project access thresholds, coordinate regional resources, coal quality, transportation conditions and market demand and other factors to create conditions for the efficient use of resources and the development of upstream and downstream industries.
On this basis, the production of products that are not easily available on petrochemical routes is regarded as one of the ways out. Zhang Jiming revealed that, relying on the abundant coal, the National Energy Group will promote the construction of coal-chemical integrated bases, create a "coal-chemical-new material" industrial chain, and differentiate the development of new coal-based fuels and coal-based new materials. Transition to high-end new materials and synthetic materials. Coal-based biodegradable materials have now been taken as a new direction, which can not only solve the problems of high-end and differentiated end products, but also realize the worldwide problem of recyclable, degradable and recyclable plastics.
Zhang Hong, deputy secretary-general of the China Coal Industry Association, proposed that the concept of changing coal from a single energy type to a multi-energy type aggregate, and promoting the hierarchical and qualitative utilization of coal is the focus of the next stage. "For example, in northern Shaanxi, coal resources with a proven oil content of more than 10% are about 150 billion tons. The use of qualitative utilization technology is equivalent to obtaining 15 billion tons of oil, about 10 billion tons of natural gas, and 100 billion tons of clean coal. Resources."
Source: Chemical Network
