Since March this year, the international oil market has not only continued to make history, but has also been tragic. After the steep fall in oil prices, it is the first time in history! International crude oil futures prices have fallen into negative numbers!
Will domestic oil prices be affected?
New time for oil price adjustment: 24:00 on April 28th (at 12pm next Tuesday), there are currently 5 days before the adjustment, and it is expected that the oil price drop will come to 940 yuan / ton. The decline in oil prices has been reduced by 10 yuan / ton, but the international oil price is now below 30 US dollars / barrel, but this round of probability will trigger the protection mechanism without adjustment.
Prior to April 15, domestic oil prices were not adjusted due to the "floor price" of the average international crude oil price of less than US $ 40 per barrel, which was the second consecutive unadjusted.
According to the "Petroleum Price Management Measures", the average price of international crude oil to which domestic refined oil prices are attached is lower than the "floor price" of US $ 40 per barrel, and domestic oil prices will not be adjusted. The unadjusted part will be handed over to the central treasury in full in accordance with the regulations and included in the general public budget management. Historically, in the fall of international oil prices in 2016, the domestic price adjustment of refined oil products had "six consecutive stops" due to the "floor price" mechanism.
Current national average oil price:
No. 92 gasoline fell to 5.49 yuan / liter;
No. 95 gasoline fell to 5.84 yuan / liter;
No. 0 diesel fell to 5.07 yuan / liter.
In other words, the current standard is already the lowest price that cannot be lowered. The unadjusted portion is included in the oil price control risk reserve and turned over to the treasury.
Domestic oil prices may start a full price cut
Although it is said that the domestic refined oil market implements a “floor price” of US $ 40, as lower-priced crude oil gradually enters the domestic market, it intensifies competition in downstream sales. The actual oil prices in many parts of the country have been significantly reduced.
Many private gas stations are cheaper by more than 2 yuan per liter of gasoline.
It is expected that after the digestion of high oil price stocks two or three months later, mainly private enterprises will be supplemented by PetroChina and Sinopec. The nationwide discount on gasoline retail will continue to increase, with a basic discount of 0.5 yuan to 1 yuan per liter.
At the same time, some newly launched refineries must increase production load in order to recover investment as soon as possible. Therefore, the supply of resources is more than demand, and the external market is not good. The efficiency of our product export will also be affected. Therefore, the refined oil terminal in the second half of the year Market competition will become increasingly fierce.
Lower price sales are related to lower international crude oil prices and the impact of the epidemic
According to market sources, the increase and decrease in domestic refined oil prices are related to international crude oil prices. According to the refined oil price formation mechanism released by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2016, when the oil price in the international market is lower than US $ 40 per barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel does not decrease, so the recent domestic maximum price of No. 92 gasoline has remained at RMB 5.5 per liter.
However, the country has not set a minimum price for refined oil, so some gas stations can determine the final retail price based on their own purchase channels and prices.
Every year during the Spring Festival holiday, refined oil sales enter the peak season, and gas stations and upstream suppliers generally maintain high stocks before the Spring Festival holiday to meet market demand. When the epidemic occurred, the demand for refined oil was greatly reduced, and gas stations and suppliers were under greater pressure to destock, so they adopted price reductions and discounts to promote sales.
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