CAB index analysis in March
The three-month March moving average (3MMA) index of the United States was at 120.12, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%.
The chemical industry activity barometer (CAB) index for March was 113.15. Following a decline of 1.1% and 1.2% in February and January, respectively, the decline in March was 8.0%, the largest decline since World War II.
Kevin Swift, ACC ’s chief economist, said: “The CAB index marks the decline of US business.” The ACC believes that when the barometer drops for three consecutive months and falls by 3.0% or more from its peak , An economic recession will occur.
As of March, the CAB index has fallen for two consecutive months, down 8.9% from its peak. "ACC said that the chemical industry activity barometer is a leading economic indicator taken from the chemical industry composite index.
CAB combines data on chemicals and chlorine, chlor-alkali, pigments, plastic resins and other basic industrial chemicals. It also includes chemical company inventory data, chemical production hours, and published chemical price and inventory information. In addition, the indicator also includes other data, such as new house operating rate and new orders for finished products.
In March, indicators related to production all showed a downward trend. Construction-related resins, pigments and related functional chemicals are generally negative. Plastic resins used in packaging, consumer products and institutional applications are also showing the same trend. Functional chemicals are negative and US exports are weak. Stock prices have plummeted, but this week has improved. Product prices and input prices fell. Inventory and other supply chain indicators are negative.
