Recently, the quotations of urea companies in Shandong, Lianghe, Shanxi and other places have continued to decline slightly. At present, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 1640-1680 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the price of urea received by compound fertilizer companies in Linyi is 1660-1670 yuan. Although the port flow still exists, the domestic market demand is general, and the overall demand is not enough to absorb the current output of the company. The new orders of urea factories are relatively small, and the industrial and agricultural demand is general. It is heard that the cancellation date of the port restrictions will be delayed. The price of urea may continue to fall in the short term.
The price of urea is "blatantly" cut, what about monoammonium? Recently, the price of monoammonium has been relatively stable. At present, the actual acceptance of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is RMB 1,780-1800, and some large factories are still at RMB 1820-1830. It is reported that some large factories in Hubei do not take orders recently, and they quote Shandong at 1850. 55% powdered ammonium in the southwest region is actually shipped from 1650-1750 yuan; Henan 55% powdered ammonium is actually accepted for delivery at 1780-1820 yuan, and the high-end prices are mostly small orders. The price of urea is justified. Why is monoammonium stable now? The author's analysis is as follows:
First of all, there is still a lot of companies ready to go. At present, the pending orders of various enterprises of monoammonium can be carried out until the end of September. Although the pending quantity is not too much, it can basically maintain the company's production and sales balance. The inventory pressure of the company is not large. It is reported that some large factories in Hubei recently have pending orders as high as 150,000. About 70,000 tons, orders in the Northeast region alone have reached about 70,000 tons, which are mainly supplied to Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang compound fertilizer plants. Another large factory in Hubei has orders for only a few thousand tons in the Northeast, but the overall pending delivery is also 50,000-60,000 tons. , It is reported that this order from the Northeast will also be sent out after September 15. It can be seen that the recent shipments of individual large factories are indeed tight. The main reason is that the relatively few transportation vehicles and the slightly more self-use raw material monoammonium for the production of compound fertilizers have caused the shipment of monoammonium outbound orders to be slightly slower. It has been heard that other monoammonium companies, especially those in Hubei, are also experiencing tight shipments recently. This situation has somewhat brought certain orders for monoammonium companies in Southwest and other places.
Secondly, although there are not many new orders recently, there will be certain demand opportunities in the Northeast in the later period. Recently, there are not many new orders from enterprises. Except for a few large factories, some small factories recently received mostly small orders, and there were not many large orders. Most of the compound fertilizer companies in Northeast China are planning to start the car in mid-to-late October, which is delayed compared to previous years. They are mostly planning to purchase raw materials such as monoammonium at the end of September. The recent information about the advance purchase of monoammonium is only a few representative compound fertilizer companies in Northeast China. Therefore, there are still certain demand opportunities in the Northeast in the later period.
Finally, the raw material sulfur market has improved slightly recently. In recent days, the domestic sulfur market has been driven by the rise in international sulfur prices, and the price has rebounded. Electronic disks have also continued to rise. Currently, the price of granular sulfur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port has broken the 700 yuan mark, and the price of Puguang sulfur has also rebounded. At present, Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Port The price of sulfur in the plant area rose to 700 yuan and 650 yuan respectively. Although in the long run, sulphur prices are unlikely to rise sharply due to the impact of high Hong Kong stocks, it still has a certain supporting effect on the monoammonium market in the short term.
To sum up, things have two sides. There will be no permanent positives or permanent negatives. Monoammonium still has certain challenges, and the mentality of hoping for stability is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of monoammonium should temporarily stabilize in the short term. .
Source: Chemical Network
