After the Spring Festival return, the domestic aniline market experienced a steady consolidation during the festival and then quickly picked up, starting a wave of sharp rises. The mainstream transaction price of aniline in various places rose by 1,200 yuan (ton price, the same below) three days after the holiday. Facilitated by the expected increase in demand, low inventories, and sharp increase in raw materials, the aniline market rose by 1,100 yuan again in the following week, breaking the 10,000 yuan mark, and the mainstream domestic transaction price rose to 11,000 yuan, a month-on-month increase. Up to 36%. On March 3, some manufacturers in Shandong and Jiangsu raised their quotations again to 11,200 to 11,400 yuan, and the transaction volume continued to follow up.
"The aniline market went from a stable operation before the holiday to a sharp rise after the holiday. In addition to the factors of demand, inventory and raw materials, positive factors such as smooth transportation after the holiday, relief of capital tensions, and general rise in the energy sector are also contributing to the formation. The situation of tight prices is rising. As prices continue to rise, the profit margins of production companies are also expanding. It is not ruled out that production companies will further increase the operating rate, and the rise of aniline may slow down by then." Henan trader Li Yanhui said.
01
Expected increase in demand
From the perspective of the downstream MDI industry of aniline, during the Spring Festival, the United States was hit by a cold wave, and the MDI devices of local Covestro, Dow and other companies were reduced or force majeure stopped, and the supply of goods was tight in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Domestic factories have also further tightened their supply and increased their export efforts, resulting in increased worries about tight supply in the market. In addition, manufacturers have maintained control over the distribution market before the holiday. The supply in the market has always been relatively tight, and the price of MDI has risen rapidly. . As of the end of February, the offer price of Shanghai Cargo and Wanhua Cargo in East China in barrels with tickets was 27,000 to 28,000 yuan, a month-on-month increase of about 40%.
"As MDI, the largest downstream product of aniline, the sharp rise in the market in February became the main factor driving the surge in the aniline market." Li Yanhui said.
In addition, Wanhua Chemical’s Yantai Industrial Park’s MDI plant has been expanded from 600,000 tons/year to 1.1 million tons/year. Part of the capacity expansion has been completed, and the demand for aniline is expected to increase in the future. Other downstream industries, such as antipyretic ice, dyes, and additives, have steadily increased in demand with the resumption of production after the holiday, and continue to provide favorable support for the aniline market.
02
Inventory is low
According to Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, during the early Spring Festival, many downstream and traders had weak expectations on the aniline market, and the intention to stock up was not high. The raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers was low, and some traders even cleared the warehouse for the New Year. The rise of energy has accumulated energy. After the holiday, circulation in various places accelerated, downstream enterprises and traders were actively stocking up, coupled with speculation factors, supported by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the price of aniline rebounded rapidly.
Feedback from aniline companies shows that Shandong Jinling has an overhaul plan in March, and shipments have decreased; some manufacturers in Jiangsu have also reduced retail supply due to arranging cargo, and the source of social circulation has a further decreasing trend. This is also the short-term price of aniline will rise all the way. One of the reasons.
03
Costs have risen sharply
According to Yan Shaoqi, a pure benzene trader, recently, there has been a surge in the domestic pure benzene market. The listed price of Sinopec's pure benzene rose to 6,750 yuan on February 26, a 41% increase from the previous month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the cargoes arriving at East China ports decreased in February. As of February 27, Jiangsu's port inventory of pure benzene was 204,500 tons, down 3.5% from February 19. The increase of ships arriving at the port in March is limited, and the port is expected to continue the mode of lowering the warehouse. The pure benzene market is still expected to rise. This will form the basic support for the cost of aniline, and the possibility of a high and strong aniline market is not ruled out.
A pure benzene importer and exporter in Jiangsu stated that the global price of pure benzene rose sharply in February. On February 26, the Asian FOB Korea closed price of US$875.67, a 33% increase from the previous month, which was higher than the domestic market. Domestic Ningbo Zhongjin delayed restarting aromatics plant due to technical problems, and Quanzhou Petrochemical maintained low-load operation, causing domestic pure benzene prices to soar, thus supporting the soaring Asian pure benzene market.
In addition, due to the low temperature on the Gulf Coast of the United States, many refineries have stopped production. The tightening supply has driven the global price of pure benzene to firm, and the strength of the external disk has also formed continuous support for the domestic market.
Analysis of industry insiders, according to the current transaction status, the aniline market is still in a short-term hot period when demand exceeds supply. In addition to the general rise of many chemical products, there is still room for continued growth in the short term. However, in the later period, as the aniline companies that stopped work and overhaul started, the demand exceeds the supply pattern or eased, and it is expected that March will become a key node.
Source: Mobile Public Account
