In 2020, due to the impact of domestic and foreign health events, the demand for the chemical industry has shrunk, resulting in high stocks of various chemical products, more obvious liquid chemical products, and domestic mainstream liquid warehousing. As a result, the liquefaction and warehousing industry ushered in a glorious moment.
It is reported that the problem of tight tank capacity in the reservoir area is particularly prominent in the methanol and styrene market.
Methanol domestic production capacity and imports doubled
Affected by the epidemic, foreign demand declined. In the case of weak demand in India, Southeast Asia, and Europe, arbitrage was sent domestically, making the increase in imports obvious.
The import volume of imported cargo in May 2020 is expected to be 1,149,900 tons, an increase of 76,100 tons or 7.09% from the April customs import data (1,073,800 tons). The original plan was close to 1.3 million tons, but under the pressure of tight port capacity, the unloading pressure in the mainstream reservoir area increased and the unloading speed was slow, making imports less than expected, but still maintaining an increase, currently reaching the highest level in 2020.
At the end of May, the domestic methanol giant Baofeng Energy Phase II's 2.2 million ton/year methanol plant successfully produced qualified methanol. The pattern of the northwestern industry will gradually change, and more domestic supply will flow to the eastern market. The weakness of the weak port methanol to return to the mainland will become heavier.
In May, the storage and unloading of goods around Jiangsu was relatively concentrated, the marginal inventory in East China gradually reached the extreme value, and the port tank capacity became more and more tight. Unloading in the future is still a problem. In order to avoid the continuous weakening of methanol liquidity, since mid-May, some warehouse areas have successively introduced new standards for storage fees, and the storage fees for overdue goods have become several times the original. This undoubtedly increased the volume of goods picked up in the warehouse area, but the market demand is relatively Stability, such a mechanical increase in the volume of inventory, but instead caused the port methanol prices fell into the trough this year.
Styrene stocks are under greater pressure and prices are suppressed
Jiangsu area is the mainstream storage place of styrene in China. At present, the styrene inventory of mainstream commercial warehousing in this area continues to be high, and the circulation of goods is slow. Most of the goods have exceeded the original storage period. The possibility of increasing greatly. In response to this situation, various warehouses have increased their storage costs to varying degrees to force the cargo owners to actively pick up the goods and speed up the circulation of styrene sources.
The oversupply of domestic styrene is more serious, and the operating rate is increasing month by month. It is expected that the national operating rate will gradually climb to a high of 90% in June; while imports are driven by crude oil plunge and low price transactions, from the Middle East, India, Europe, Japan, Thailand, Styrene from Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea has arrived. After May, stocks of domestic styrene enterprises began to accumulate for four consecutive weeks. It is estimated that China will have an excess of about 120,000 tons of styrene in June and 130,000 tons in July, which will continue to accumulate in the short term.
It is more difficult to remove warehousing from warehouses, which is the main factor that suppresses the current rise in styrene prices and the main negative factor for styrene. In the short term, there is an obvious surplus of styrene. It is necessary to adjust the supply of imported and domestic sources through cost and price adjustments.
Source: Mobei Public Account
