The well-known fourth consecutive bidding in India has fallen on the industry’s attention, whether it is India’s lowest East Coast Port CIF price of US$283.52 (ton price, the same below), West Coast’s lowest CIF price of US$288.89, or India’s total The tender was 1.7 million tons, and it is rumored that China may occupy about 800,000 tons. In terms of price and quantity, it will play a positive role in supporting domestic urea. However, a few days have passed since the tender, but many domestic urea prices The rate of increase is relatively slow, and urea quotations in some regions have even declined: the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is now 1640-1680 yuan, and the price of urea received by the compound fertilizer companies in Linyi is 1700 yuan. The transaction refers to about 1,640 yuan and the factory is in Hebei. The mainstream ex-factory price of urea is 1740-1790 yuan, and the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Henan is 1,650 yuan. The prices in the above-mentioned regions have been adjusted to a certain extent, but there are also some areas where prices have fallen slightly compared with the previous period. The mainstream ex-factory prices of urea in Shanxi are 1530- 1540 yuan for large particles, 1580 yuan for large particles, and low-end transactions in Jincheng area with reference to 1510 yuan. Even the reference for urea transactions in Sichuan also dropped to 1600 yuan or slightly lower. This price trend is in line with the previous Indian tenders. The style of "very different" causes this situation to be nothing more than the following.
First of all, the port restrictions still exist, and the flow of enterprise shipments is blocked. In the past month, India has started bidding four times in a row. As a result, international prices have also increased. In particular, in the last two biddings, India has bought urea twice at a solid "high price." More than 1.4 million tons, and the current port supply is only between 500,000 and 600,000 tons. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage, most companies have poor export intentions and relatively few port stocks, and this month they have caught up with India’s large-scale Tendering, the current port loading and unloading capacity is limited, even though most companies that can export are still waiting for the port, but the number of ships that can be loaded in the port is currently limited, the company's shipments are blocked, and the domestic price is relatively low.
Secondly, domestic market demand is limited at this stage. Although the domestic autumn compound fertilizer production is still continuing, most companies still have the amount to be consumed, and it is still too early to store fertilizer in winter, and the purchase of board factories and power plants is relatively small, and the agricultural market demand in many places is relatively ordinary. For example, due to export in Sichuan The advantage is relatively low, and the demand in the surrounding industrial and agricultural markets is average. Although most factories' ex-factory prices are around 1,650 yuan, the actual transaction reference is only 1,600 yuan or slightly lower. The domestic market is currently at a relatively high level. The national urea daily physical The output has remained above 150,000 tons. In addition to the companies that have resumed production one after another, some downstream distributors indicated that the potential supply will be more sufficient in the later period. However, driven by the uncertainty of the printed label, the possibility of a decline in urea or storage will decline. In one step, even if the price is raised in the later period, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the possibility of shortage in the later period is relatively low, so some conservative traders have temporarily suspended purchases.
In summary, it can be seen that not every printed label can immediately speculate on the price of domestic urea, but it has to be admitted that once the port's handling capacity increases in the near future, even if the domestic urea market demand is poor, the domestic urea price The probability will be improved.
Source: Chemical Network
