Nearly one hundred leading chemical companies "United" ceased production! The chemical market, which is already imbalanced between supply and demand, is even worse! A new round of price increases may start!
It is understood that at present, nearly 100 chemical companies are parking for maintenance or planning to conduct parking for maintenance this year, involving many chemicals such as bisphenol A, PC, PP, PE, and PVC industrial chain.
Some of these companies are overhauling parts of their devices, and others are completely shutting down for overhaul, and the cycle is generally long, basically between 10-50 days. Some companies directly announced that the supply will be cut off soon! There is not much remaining inventory, so be ready to stock up!
The specific overhaul conditions are as follows:
▶▶▶The overhaul of the large polyethylene PE factory lasts for 45 days!
In March, the domestic PE equipment maintenance was concentrated. Shenyang Chemical, Yanshan Chemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical and other companies have arranged parking maintenance plans. The time ranges from one week to 40 days, and the affected output is nearly 200,000 tons/year. .
Maoming Petrochemical 2#LDPE plant maintenance postponed to March 24, its 350,000 tons/year HDPE will also be shut down around the 24th. The PE parking of Maoming Petrochemical Company affects 81,800 tons/year.
▶▶▶22 PC companies' installations are confirmed for parking and maintenance
At present, domestic manufacturers only Lihua Yiweiyuan's 130,000 tons/year PC device maintains full load operation, and other domestic devices have started to decline or stop.
Domestic and foreign companies such as Covestro, Lotte Chemical, LG Chemical, Shanghai Mitsubishi, Sinopec Mitsubishi, etc. have arranged a more than one-month shutdown and maintenance plan this year.
▶▶▶BPA parking for maintenance for about 45 days
Not only the PC will be overhauled this year, but also from March to May, there are also many maintenance plans for the upstream BPA, and some of them will be shut down for about 45 days.
▶▶▶Butadiene business parking for up to 40 days
The butadiene and downstream rubber plants of Fushun Petrochemical will be shut down on April 12th, and the initial estimated stop time is about 40 days; the maintenance time of the 165,000 tons/year butadiene plant of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical has been postponed from the initial March to April. In May, the latest news may be postponed to the second half of May.
▶▶▶ABS companies will park for 40 days
Shanghai Gaoqiao plans to shut down a production line for maintenance in mid-to-late March, which will last about 45 days. Jilin Petrochemical plans to shut down the entire line for maintenance from the end of May to the beginning of July. The overall loss is estimated to be around 60,000 tons.
▶▶▶Styrene parking maintenance for up to 50 days
Panjin Baolai’s 350,000-ton/year plant is scheduled to be shut down for 20 days on April 1st; Dongfang Petrochemical’s 120,000-ton/year plant is shut down on March 3 and planned to be overhauled for 45 days; Yanshan Petrochemical’s 80,000-ton/year plant is scheduled to be overhauled in late March 50 days. ; Ningbo Daxie's 360,000-ton/year plant plans to shut down for maintenance for 1.5 months at the end of March, and the negative will fall to 70% at the beginning of March.
Upstream and downstream game, who can't hold it first?
At present, major factories have increased their overhauls, and the supply of raw materials may become more tight. In addition, chemical giants such as BASF, Dow, Tenuo, Chemours and other chemical giants have "respected first" in April, and a new round of price increases seems inevitable.
This round of price increases is also the trend of the general environment. Central banks around the world are releasing water, and inflation expectations must first be reflected in the price increase of commodities. On March 14, Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst at Soochow Securities, believed that "this is the fastest rise in commodities since the 21st century."
But in fact, this round of soaring raw materials is still priceless. Factories generally reserve raw materials for a few months in advance before the Spring Festival holiday. Therefore, in this round of price increases after the holiday, part of the downstream is still "watching the excitement", waiting for the price to drop before restocking.
If this state of pricelessness continues, upstream companies will have a backlog of inventory, and to a certain extent, they will reduce prices in order to achieve sales. Some bosses believe that once the price is cut, the decline will be greater. Let's see now, in the end, the downstream can't support the order, or the upstream can't support the exchange!
However, as far as the current situation is concerned, there is still support for the chemical market to continue to rise. The price increase of raw materials this time may continue for another 3-6 months!
First, the World Bank predicts that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2021. The prospects for the recovery of the global economy are relatively optimistic, with strong demand for chemicals and other bulk commodities. With the recovery of economic growth, companies' initiative to replenish inventories will increase demand for bulk commodities from the real economy and provide support for their price increases.
Second, in the short term, countries around the world have not completely withdrawn from the quantitative easing monetary policy plan. The Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion active stimulus plan has also officially landed. Inflation has exceeded expectations, further expanding from financial channels to demand for commodities. .
Source: Chemical Network
