At present, among the raw material fertilizers, one nutrient of small nitrogen fertilizer is about 28-39 yuan, potassium chloride is about 32-35 yuan, ammonium phosphate is about 38-45 yuan, urea is about 43-45 yuan, and potassium sulfate is a nutrient. About 50-54 yuan, there is no doubt that potassium sulfate is still the most expensive one. Recently, urea and ammonium phosphate are the representatives of price increases, and other varieties are also looking for opportunities to follow up in stability. So does the most expensive potassium sulfate have a chance?
High start-up, low inventory
According to data from China Fertilizer.com, the annual average industry operating rate of Mannheim's potassium sulfate in 2020 is about 69%, while the total average operating rate of the previous three years is only slightly higher than 60%. Even so, the carry-over inventory of potassium sulfate at the end of 2020 It is still the lowest value in recent years. Although there is credit for reducing the production of potassium sulfate in the water-salt system, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the operating rate of the Mannheim potassium sulfate industry is still as high as 79% (the number was only 59 on the eve of the Spring Festival last year. %, it was only about 50% in the same period of the previous year), it is still obvious that the potassium sulfate market is better.
It is understood that although the inventory of Mannheim manufacturers is gradually increasing, the speed is not fast and it is related to factors such as poor logistics status. In fact, most manufacturers’ order plans are scheduled to around the end of February, and there is no major Sales and inventory pressure; Qinghai Salt System Potassium Sulfate will soon be completely suspended for holidays due to winter reasons. Currently, the inventory is limited and there are still many pending shipments. Xinjiang SDIC Luo Potassium has the volume before September. Allocated.
Potassium chloride is steady and bullish
Potassium chloride rose from August to November last year for more than 4 consecutive months. Then, from December to the present, it has been somewhat weaker for more than two months, but it has not fallen much. Recently, it has gradually stabilized and a rebound is brewing. It is preliminarily expected that the performance of the potassium chloride market in 2021 is likely to be stronger than that in 2020: first, the price of the new major contract will rise within an appropriate range; secondly, the presence of Hong Kong will gradually decline, and foreign investors have not released large quantities of goods to China's bonded areas as last year. ; Third, the top three domestic potassium producers in Qinghai all plan to reduce production; finally, the epidemic era continues, and the general environment is conducive to the firming of fertilizer prices.
Sulfuric acid rises and hydrochloric acid drops
The price of sulphur began to rise at the end of July and early August last year, and has been rising all the way to the present. It has risen by about 500 yuan in more than half a year, an increase of nearly 70%, and the largest increase is over 90%. Corresponding sulphuric acid prices have also generally risen. In addition, the price of natural gas, another important raw material for the production of Mannheim's potassium sulfate, has also risen significantly, especially when there is a shortage of gas in winter. Correspondingly, the price of hydrochloric acid, the main by-product, is falling recently, and the number of people who reposted it again has increased. Overall, the cost of Mannheim potassium sulfate has risen significantly, and the industry average cost has risen by about 300 yuan from the low end of last year.
Nitrogen and phosphorus are crazy and easy to borrow light
How much urea and ammonium phosphate have risen recently, surely I don’t need to say more? In order not to make nitrogen and phosphorus too proud, I won't repeat them here. In short, the more rapid the increase in nitrogen and phosphorus, the easier it is to borrow potash fertilizer. Besides, the cost is rising and there is no pressure on inventory, so not to mention how much it will increase, at least there will be no major fall.
Guaranteed export quantity
In the first year of zero export tariffs in 2019, my country exported 326,000 tons of potassium sulfate, and in 2020 this number has increased to 375,000 tons. The export of potassium sulphate this year is still worth looking forward to: on the one hand, in the era of the epidemic, agricultural demand is guaranteed and the production of competing countries is not as stable as ours. On the other hand, two years after the export of potassium sulphate, our manufacturers are more familiar with the road, and the import of processing trade is allowed Competitiveness will also be enhanced after export.
In summary, although the single nutrient price of potassium sulfate is still the highest among the main raw materials, whether it is from the perspective of itself or the external environment, at least in the short term, it will be more favorable than negative. The price should be expected to rise after the Spring Festival. . However, the long-term trend in 2021 needs to be determined based on the possible changes in the market environment and its own production capacity growth. Manufacturers only need to take every step steadily.
Source: Chemical Network
