The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement on the increase in crude oil production in August on the 1st. As the major oil-producing countries proposed relatively conservative production increases, the market is worried that the tensions between supply and demand will continue, and international oil prices have risen significantly.
On the same day, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.76 US dollars to close at 75.23 US dollars per barrel. This is the first contract price of New York crude oil futures to close at 75 US dollars per barrel for the first time since October 2018. ; London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 1.22 US dollars to close at 75.84 US dollars per barrel.
According to reports, at the ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries that day, Saudi Arabia and other countries advocated an increase of 400,000 barrels of crude oil per month from August to December this year, while the UAE advocated a more radical increase. Increase supply. According to the press release issued by OPEC, the meeting will continue to be conducted by video on the 2nd.
OPEC Secretary General Barkindo said on the same day that the gradual increase in crude oil production starting in April this year will help the market continue to stabilize and is welcomed by the market; looking forward to the roadmap for production adjustments in the next two years, it is important to continue the production reduction agreement and closely follow the market to avoid next year. There is a large-scale supply surplus; OPEC will continue to be proactive and cautious when formulating policies.
Some analysts said that the current OPEC and non-OPEC main members of the oil-producing countries proposed to increase the supply plan is conservative. This means that supply and demand in the international oil market may remain tense, and it is difficult for oil prices to fall back. In the context of the overall recovery of the global economy, if oil-producing countries continue to maintain a conservative production increase plan, global oil inventories will continue to fall, and international oil prices will continue to be supported.
At present, global demand is still lower than the level before the new crown epidemic. With the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the volatility of commodity prices, the current oil prices are already facing a correction. Barry Bannister, executive director of the US equity research department of the US investment bank Stiefell Financial Corporation, believes that in the second half of this year, the price of Brent crude oil futures will fall back to $55 per barrel and will continue to consolidate next year.
