On April 16, the "2020 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report", compiled and published by the CNPC Economic and Technical Research Institute (ETRI) organized by dozens of experts and research backbones, was released in Beijing using the "online + offline" synchronization model. The report believes that the world’s major economies have reached a peak in carbon and carbon neutrality goals are gradually clear, which will deeply trigger structural changes on both sides of the oil and gas supply and demand, and the oil and gas industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading. In the next five years, the global oil and gas market will enter a period of change, and natural gas will continue to be the fossil energy with the fastest growing demand. In the second half of 2021, the effect of epidemic prevention and control will gradually appear, the economic recovery of the world's major economies will be better than expected, and the fundamentals of the oil and gas market and the operation of the oil and gas industry will emerge from the decline and show a recovery rebound. Brent oil price is expected to reach 62-67 US dollars per barrel.
The characteristics of "oil stabilization and gas increase" will be more obvious
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's oil and gas industry will enter a new period of accelerating change and comprehensively promoting high-quality development under the new stage of building a socialist modern country and the "3060" dual-carbon goal. The characteristics of "oil stabilizing and increasing gas" will be more obvious. It is expected that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", oil demand will gradually approach the peak platform of 730 million to 750 million tons, and natural gas is still in a period of rapid development, reaching 420 billion to 500 billion cubic meters in 2025. M; The ability to guarantee oil and gas supply will continue to increase, domestic crude oil production will rise steadily, natural gas production will reach 235 billion to 250 billion cubic meters, and the ability to receive imported LNG will increase on a large scale.
1. The world: Intensified competition in the oil refining industry, gross profit slightly increased in 2021
In 2020, the growth rate of world oil refining capacity will slow down significantly compared with the previous year. The new crown epidemic has severely impacted the global oil refining industry. The overall operating performance of the oil refining industry is much lower than that of the previous year. Refining margins in the region have fallen sharply. Affected by the epidemic, some refineries in Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region have reduced production, closed or converted to produce biofuels, and the progress of refinery construction projects in countries along the “Belt and Road” has slowed.
In 2021, the world's oil refining capacity is expected to continue to grow at a low rate, and the newly added capacity is only about 40 million tons/year, mainly from China and the Middle East. China is expected to surpass the United States to become the world's largest refiner; the world's refinery crude oil processing capacity and capacity utilization rate It will slowly recover, and the gross profit of refining is expected to be slightly better than that of the previous year. Competition in the world refining industry is intensified.
2. China: Transformation and upgrading will continue after the capacity is over
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's oil refining capacity increased from 790 million tons/year to 890 million tons/year, an increase of 12.7%.
In 2020, China's oil refining capacity will continue to grow. While private enterprises have built the largest world-class refinery in China, they will also enter a new round of capacity integration. The industry has been operating in a weak position throughout the year under the adverse effects of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, difficulties in production and operation, and huge fluctuations in international oil prices.
In 2021, the domestic oil refining industry will achieve double breakthroughs. Among them, the refining capacity exceeded 900 million tons per year, the crude oil processing volume exceeded 700 million tons per year, and the export of refined oil resumed growth. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, on the one hand, the continued growth of refining capacity will promote China to become the world's largest refining country; on the other hand, industry transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment will continue under the background of excess capacity.
Ethylene production capacity growth mainly comes from China and the United States
1. The world: low oil prices affect the structure of ethylene raw materials
In 2020, the growth rate of world ethylene capacity will slow down, and most of the new capacity will come from China. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the demand for ethylene will increase slightly. The operating rate of ethylene plants in the world will drop significantly. The price of ethylene in major markets will continue to fall. The cost of ethylene and naphtha-based ethylene has undergone great changes. North American ethane-to-ethylene construction projects have slowed down. Although the construction process of ethylene projects in countries along the “Belt and Road” has slowed down, they continue to advance.
In 2021, it is estimated that the world's ethylene production capacity will increase more than 2020, and the production capacity will exceed 200 million tons per year. The production capacity growth will mainly come from the United States and China. The supply will be more abundant and the demand for ethylene is expected to gradually recover.
2. China: 2021 will be the year with the most production capacity put into operation in the history of the ethylene industry
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, ethylene production capacity increased from 22 million tons/year to 35.18 million tons/year, an increase of 60%.
In 2020, China's ethylene production capacity will increase substantially. Among the newly added production capacity, ethylene production capacity using light hydrocarbons as raw materials will grow rapidly, and the raw material routes will be further diversified. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the growth rate of ethylene production has dropped significantly, and the industry's overall efficiency has declined.
2021 will be the year with the most production capacity built and put into operation in the history of China's ethylene industry. Oil-based ethylene and gas-based ethylene will go hand in hand. The total production capacity will exceed the 4,000-ton mark per year. The output will increase significantly, and the proportion of private enterprises will further expand. more competitive.
Source: Chemical Network
