In September 2020, at the General Debate of the Seventy-fifth United Nations General Assembly, China announced that it would strive to reach a peak in carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. This is also known as China’s “dual carbon” goal. . Under the guidance of the "dual-carbon" target, from petrochemical, energy, consumption, and manufacturing industries, there has been an upsurge of peak carbon reduction.
As an important link between natural raw materials and downstream end consumer products, the chemical industry contributes 4% of global carbon emissions each year, with annual emissions close to 1.5 billion tons per year. In the context of the policy of dual control of energy consumption, chemical products with higher energy consumption per ton of production will be the first to face the challenge of capacity readjustment. In an environment where new project approvals are becoming more difficult and backward projects are withdrawn one after another, many backward production capacities in the industry may be restricted due to production equipment and unit energy consumption indicators. However, from a long-term perspective, the dual-carbon policy may promote The new round of supply-side reforms in the chemical industry and the clearing of outdated production capacity will promote further industry concentration.
Coal chemical industry waits for transformation
China is a large country in the world's coal reserves, production and consumption. In the process of reducing the use of coal energy, the promotion and development of coal in the chemical industry will simultaneously complete the dual role of reducing carbon in the energy structure and filling the gap in the chemical industry. More and more coal is used in the coal chemical industry, not only can produce more necessary chemical products, but also use the heat generated in the coal chemical process as energy, and integrate it into the energy supply system to build a new type of power supply together with other energy sources. System to achieve high-efficiency use of materials and the lowest emission of pollutants.
At this stage, my country's coal chemical industry is mainly facing the risk of serious overcapacity of traditional production capacity, and high-end product technology is difficult to break through. In the future, carbon neutral policy pressure will promote modern coal chemical industry to take a high-end, clean, and market-oriented route. Optimizing the industrial structure through development with constraints, on the one hand, will continue to improve the level of process technology, reduce energy and reduce emissions, and reduce carbon emissions related costs; on the other hand, extend the industrial chain downwards, increase product added value, and reduce unit output value. Energy costs. Therefore, it will benefit companies with technological advantages and the entire industry chain that can obtain high value-added products. We should give full play to the creative potential of existing projects, and at the same time introduce international and domestic new processes and technologies, focus on key technological breakthroughs, take product innovation as the leader of industrial structure adjustment, and enhance the product value chain.
Private refineries with "less oil and more chemistry" stepped into the ascending channel
In the future, with the increase in the market share of new energy vehicles in China, domestic demand for refined oil may be under pressure, and the growth rate of crude oil consumption will continue to increase. With the gradual clearing of outdated and old oil refining capacity in China, the proportion has declined, and foreign oil giants such as British Petroleum, Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil have announced the closure of many backward oil refineries worldwide. The refinery indicates that the traditional oil refinery will gradually withdraw from the stage of history, and the large private refining and chemical enterprises that mainly produce chemical products with "small oil heads and large chemicals" may usher in good development opportunities.
Private refining and chemical companies that mainly produce chemical products are less affected by the slowdown in the demand for refined oil. Therefore, large private refining and chemical companies with less oil and more diversification are expected to further enhance the research and development strength of chemical products, stabilize the leading position in the industry, and promote the platform. The type of chemical giant is striding forward.
Chlor-alkali chemical industry: the concentration of sub-sections is expected to increase
Soda ash industry: There will be less new capacity in the future, and the leading capacity will have a significant advantage in flexibility
Since 2011, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash has been basically stable, and the concentration of production capacity is expected to be further concentrated in the industry. The capacity utilization rate in 2020 is 83%, and the capacity utilization rate in the past five years has basically remained at around 85%. In terms of industry concentration, the concentration of the soda ash industry in 2020 is 37.9%, of which Sanyou Chemical, Henan Jinshan, and Shandong Haihua together account for 29% of my country's total soda ash production capacity. In the future, there will be fewer new soda ash capacity, and leading companies are expected to expand their leading advantages by virtue of higher capacity flexibility.
Caustic soda industry: the industry has a low degree of concentration, and the leader may stand out by virtue of cost and scale advantages
In recent years, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda has basically been maintained at the level of 85%, and the industry concentration is low. The capacity utilization rate in 2020 is 86.4% and the capacity utilization rate in the past five years has basically remained at around 85%. In terms of industry concentration, the current industry concentration is 11.3%, and there is still a lot of room for growth. As the production capacity of the caustic soda industry is very dispersed and low concentration, it is expected that a large number of outdated production capacity will be cleared out in the supply-side reforms spawned by carbon neutrality, and leading companies will stand out by virtue of cost and scale advantages.
Calcium carbide-PVC industry: the development of backward production capacity is limited, the leader of the whole industry chain will usher in development opportunities
Compared with other chemicals in the chlor-alkali industry, the capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide is low, and the industry concentration is very scattered. The capacity utilization rate in 2020 is 68.2%, and the capacity and output of calcium carbide have shown a slow growth trend in the past five years. In terms of industry concentration, the current concentration of calcium carbide industry is 18.2%. Calcium carbide is a chemical product with extremely high energy consumption per unit of production, and it is also the focus of the dual energy consumption control policy. Under energy consumption control, many scattered production capacities are subject to development constraints due to production equipment and unit energy consumption indicators. Leading enterprises are expected Take this opportunity to fill up the vacancy in production capacity and expand the lead.
Biodegradable plastics: ushering in the blue ocean market
My country is a big consumer of disposable plastic products, and with the development of the express delivery and takeaway industries, the consumption of disposable plastic products is still growing rapidly every year. It is conservatively estimated that my country’s annual consumption of only disposable plastic products may exceed 9 million tons, and this number is still growing. Based on the calculation of 10% of the waste of these disposable plastic products, my country will produce at least 900,000 tons of hard-to-degrade plastic waste every year, which will put tremendous pressure on the ecological environment.
Degradable plastics can be independently degraded into non-polluting small molecules in a relatively short period of time, and their performance is similar to non-degradable plastics. Whether starting from environmental protection, development and utilization of renewable resources, or synthesis of polymer materials with special properties, it is consistent The requirements of a sustainable development strategy. Among them, biodegradable plastics, mainly PLA and PBAT, are currently the mainstream applications of degradable plastics. The overall global biodegradable plastics market is still in the early stages of development. Due to high costs and high technical barriers, biodegradable plastics are still in the promotion stage. In the future, with the gradual strengthening of people’s awareness of environmental protection and related policy guidance, it is expected to be biodegradable. The prospects for the development of plastics are broad.
New energy and new materials: an important direction for energy structure transformation
My country's energy consumption is currently dominated by high-emission coal. Under the dual-carbon strategy, my country must carry out structural transformation on both the supply side and the consumption side. In terms of energy supply, the new energy sector will have great opportunities for development, which will also drive the growth of related upstream materials. In particular, high-value new bio-based materials, chemical insulation materials with a "throttling" effect, such as consumption reduction and emission reduction materials, and clean energy-related chemical materials such as wind power, photovoltaic and hydrogen energy will usher in long-term development opportunities.
Source: Mobile Public Account
