2021 is the first year of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, and the octanol industry will also usher in spring.
From a domestic macro perspective, the government's expansion of 5G applications and the construction of new infrastructure are inseparable from the laying of wires and cables. At the same time, the country promotes new energy vehicles, which brings opportunities and development to the butanol-plasticizer industry.
In 2021, the development of the plasticizer market will continue to tilt towards environmentally friendly plasticizers. According to statistics, starting from the fourth quarter of 2020, 400,000 tons of new production capacity of octanol's main downstream DOTP will be put on the market. These new demands have already affected 2021. The octanol market in the first quarter. And the upsurge of DOTP construction or expansion will continue until 2023.
Since the completion of the CNOOC and Shell octanol plant in 2018, the domestic octanol design capacity has stabilized at 2.35 million tons for three consecutive years. With the addition of switchable capacity, the actual octanol production capacity is 2.7 million tons, and the downstream consumption growth rate in 2018-2020 will be 3.75%.
Since 2018, octanol has been digesting its original production capacity. In 2021, octanol still has no new production capacity to be put on the market. This year, the main downstream DOTP devices are under construction or planned to build more than 600,000 tons. Considering the low utilization rate of new downstream devices, combined with other factors such as the slowdown of downstream development, octanol is estimated The demand increased by about 150,000 to 180,000 tons.
Octanol and main downstream profit statistics
As the Spring Festival holiday of 2021 is approaching, the downstream demand is less than expected due to the holiday. Some plasticizer devices were forced to reduce production during the Spring Festival due to insufficient raw material octanol reserves. Companies that used to park during holidays in the past have no parking plans this year, so the downstream demand performance is strong, supporting the high market price of octanol. Since the profitability of octanol is better than that of the main downstream products, the profitability of DOP products is relatively small. After the price of butanol rises to a certain high, the purchase of raw materials will have priority to resist.
From the perspective of supply and demand data, the octanol market has a sustained high profitability and high start-up situation. With the rapid growth of demand and the attraction of high profits, the utilization rate of domestic octanol devices will be greatly increased, and at the same time, the industry will be attracted to invest in the industry.
