In September 2020, President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, stating that China's carbon dioxide emissions will peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment has quickly become one of the world's most concerned issues. During the two sessions, carbon neutrality, as a key issue, also aroused close attention in the market.
Carbon neutrality refers to the calculation of the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced directly or indirectly by enterprises, groups or individuals within a certain period of time, and through afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, etc., to offset their own carbon dioxide emissions and achieve "zero emissions of carbon dioxide." ".
The sources of carbon emissions mainly include coal, oil, natural gas, and industrial processes. In the process of my country's progress toward the goal of carbon neutrality, the energy structure and industrial structure will inevitably undergo drastic changes, which will have a profound impact on the chemical industry.
At present, fossil energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas still account for 85% of the total energy consumption structure and are the most important source of carbon emissions. To reduce carbon emissions, long-term optimization of the energy consumption structure is required. In the future, reduction in oil consumption has actually become an inevitable trend. What impact will this have on the petrochemical industry?
Upstream energy parity
In the future, the trend of new energy such as lithium battery and hydrogen energy to replace refined oil has been basically clear. The irreplaceability of crude oil relative to other fossil energy will continue to weaken. In the future, the unit energy prices of crude oil, coal, and natural gas may become more and more uniform. The result is that oil prices may remain low for a long time, which will be a long-term benefit for mid- and downstream chemical companies.
Plastic recycling and promotion of degradable plastics
From the perspective of the end of development, we believe that the recycling of plastics and the alternative use of degradable plastics are one of the most helpful means to reduce petroleum carbon emissions.
Plastic recycling can be divided into three levels. The first level is to make waste plastics into products through simple physical processing to be used in other fields, but the available fields after reprocessing are very limited; a better method is to remove Products are reproduced after purification, but because the purity is difficult to reach the state of new plastics, it is unavoidable to be downgraded after regeneration. For example, polyester water bottles cannot be made into water bottles after recycling. The best method is through pyrolysis. The plastic is decomposed and processed into monomers, and then the plastics made can be comparable to the new plastics.
Overseas chemical companies have invested heavily in recycling technology and have achieved certain results. For example, BASF has begun to use pyrolysis technology to process waste plastics and waste tires to produce new plastic products.
The degradable plastics, especially those derived from biomass, can achieve good disposal of waste plastics and effectively reduce carbon emissions without incineration and landfilling.
Opportunities for biofuels
Biofuels mainly refer to refined oils made from plants or oils. Since the use form differs little from refined oils, there is no need to change the power system and related supporting facilities, so it is less difficult to promote. Currently, ethanol gasoline and biodiesel are widely used in the world.
In the field of gasoline vehicles, my country has been experimenting with the use of fuel ethanol early on.
Although the use of biodiesel has not been promoted in China, the annual consumption of biodiesel in Europe has reached about 13 million tons. Biodiesel can completely replace ordinary diesel without affecting the existing power system. Second, the raw material comes from plants and does not produce carbon emissions at all. If waste is used as the raw material, it is even considered as negative emissions.
In March, Inner Mongolia triggered a new policy for dual energy consumption control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and put forward more stringent targets for energy consumption control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which was the first shot of the national “carbon neutral” policy. The document also gives specific arrangements for various industries. In the chemical industry, from 2021, Inner Mongolia will no longer approve new capacity projects for a series of products such as coke (blue charcoal), calcium carbide, PVC, synthetic ammonia (urea), and methanol. .
The change of the times has begun! are you ready?
